Matches The League 1 Promotion Run In

[IsleofWightYellow]

I have noticed that with us against the good teams - if we go one up then we almost seem scared to keep going at them, put them on the ropes (as I suppose we’ve been burnt before when conceding very soon after scoring) and so we sit back and invite them on us. If we just had a little more faith and attacked a bit more there are opportunities to be had as sides will have to come at you

 

[horseman]

Well it didn't work very well not just saturday but 9 other matches this season.

I do understand your thought process BUT you cannot cherry pick results to try to force home a point you are making.

The results and final position are what they are, yes we can do analysis with what if and if only but we cannot then just ignore other results like comeback wins that also contributed to our final position.

I do though find it bizarre that people say in one breath we are not good enough yet in the other say a manager has to deliver Top 2 next season.

I have said many times that the Play Offs can mask true status, if you're 15-20 + points behind, then in the past you needed to address it but nowadays reaching them seems to be a celebration which is fine if fans are ok with that but then going way over the top when just missing out and declaring top 2 next season is strange to say the least.

 

[horseman]

Logic also suggests a side on a terrible run going one down, low on confidence were there for the taking. Why then sit back , let them regroup and build momentum ?

The point though had we done that and conceded we will then have people throwing that at the manager and players and saying about this new harlem globetrotters nonsense.

for what it's worth we could and probably should have got a 2nd via Williams but that has largely been ignored but even then folk would say well we always concede 2 anyway.

 

[Yello]

Whichever way its painted , the facts are we have lost a very high amount of games from a winning position, and conceded far too many . Thats not people making things up to suit an agenda, its a fact. The way the team is made up , its not geared to start sitting on a lead after 9 minutes, its not in the current squads dna.

 

[horseman]

Whichever way its painted , the facts are we have lost a very high amount of games from a winning position, and conceded far too many . Thats not people making things up to suit an agenda, its a fact. The way the team is made up , its not geared to start sitting on a lead after 9 minutes, its not in the current squads dna.

as i've said elsewhere we cannot then ignore the comebacks either, the season and final position is what it is.

 

[MarkG]

found it.
If matches finished after 1/4 of an hour we would be second.


If the matches finished at half time we would be 4th

League One - Table by minutes

This is how the League One table in season 21/22 would look if only goals of the 90 minutes of regular time counted.

www.transfermarkt.com

If the matches finished at 75 minutes we would be 10th.

League One - Table by minutes

This is how the League One table in season 21/22 would look if only goals of the 90 minutes of regular time counted.

www.transfermarkt.com

Whereas we are currently 8th.
So does this mean we make a solid start, are conceding too many between half time and 75 minutes, but then picking up in the final 1/4? (conversely other teams doing the opposite?)

and we've picked up 5 points after the 90 minutes

 

[OX14]

as i've said elsewhere we cannot then ignore the comebacks either, the season and final position is what it is.

Yes but what you cant ignore is what someone else highlighted in another post, everyone else in the top 7 apart from Wycombe haven't lost more than 2 games when going in front. We missed out on promotion because of this.

 

[pafcprogs]

I think the problem with fans is you always look at what would have been different if a game had turned out differently......but the reality is once you change one element of the game you change everything...so a 1-0 deficit that ended as a 1-0 defeat might have been won if you equalised or it might have spurred the other side on and you lose 4-1 which would have been worse.

It is that infinite universe where every result can happen that drives us all mad....

An outsider view of your season says you had the same issue we had last season...conceding too many goals.....we fixed that with signings in the close season ( five new defenders) and having a more solid base has meant we a re reaping rewards from games we would have comfortably lost last season ( like at your place....)

There is nothing wrong with your attack....or probably midfield.....although defending starts from the front....

So maybe a defensive coach and a couple of solid citizens out of contract to supplement your good defenders.....

When Schumacher took over he hired a new coach for the defence....we were not an overnight improved unit but recently we have just been hard to score against......and no doubt his arrival has coincided with a better shape when out of possession. Also we have had players who previously drifted out of the game when we lost the ball chasing back and doing a job for us defensively.

So maybe you are not so far away from a fix.


As for next season ( and right now if we get into the play offs I think we will be outsiders to win them) a lot will depend on the players out of contract at the various clubs as to how well they go. We have most of ours for at least another season......we might well lose Broom if Posh want a fee but will have George Cooper back fit ( I hope). Garrick may be out of contract at Swansea....but is young so probably a fee there too potentially....

Every chance Cooper the keeper will be sold if the right offer comes along ( and maybe with a loan back if we do go up , but I expect him to be playing Championship football next season or the season after as a minimum, ideally with us but not necessarily. Sessegnon is out of contract and looks a good player.

We need someone to drive us forward....much as I hate to say it someone like Morsy would be perfect....just ideally not him! George Honeyman would be a better option but unlikely....

Plus there will be a whole heap of players looking for homes....so lots of opportunities to strengthen.

I expect Ipswich to be strong next season with a couple of United loanees given McKennas background, plus Derby assuming they are not encumbered with points deductions again....Barnsley/Posh could go either way.....Portsmouth /Charlton can\'t be that bad again.....the three that don't make it from this seasons shoot out and the next seasons Argyle...whoever they might be....anyone but Exeter I hope!

You have the chance to build early which the play offs always get in the way off...and we have a truncated close season thanks to the World Cup.....so we will all be back soon enough

 

[horseman]

Yes but what you cant ignore is what someone else highlighted in another post, everyone else in the top 7 apart from Wycombe haven't lost more than 2 games when going in front. We missed out on promotion because of this.

I've not ignored anything, I am simply taking the season points table final position home away as what it is.

We've seen varying opinions ranging from those 3 recent games, to failure to beat top sides, to playing like the Harlem Globetrotters, to losing more pts from a goal ahead than others, to just not good enough.

If the thought process is we aren't good enough anyway to have beaten other Play Off contenders, why are people so fired up about not making them.

 

[werthersoriginal]

I think the problem with fans is you always look at what would have been different if a game had turned out differently......but the reality is once you change one element of the game you change everything...so a 1-0 deficit that ended as a 1-0 defeat might have been won if you equalised or it might have spurred the other side on and you lose 4-1 which would have been worse.

It is that infinite universe where every result can happen that drives us all mad....

An outsider view of your season says you had the same issue we had last season...conceding too many goals.....we fixed that with signings in the close season ( five new defenders) and having a more solid base has meant we a re reaping rewards from games we would have comfortably lost last season ( like at your place....)

There is nothing wrong with your attack....or probably midfield.....although defending starts from the front....

So maybe a defensive coach and a couple of solid citizens out of contract to supplement your good defenders.....

When Schumacher took over he hired a new coach for the defence....we were not an overnight improved unit but recently we have just been hard to score against......and no doubt his arrival has coincided with a better shape when out of possession. Also we have had players who previously drifted out of the game when we lost the ball chasing back and doing a job for us defensively.

So maybe you are not so far away from a fix.


As for next season ( and right now if we get into the play offs I think we will be outsiders to win them) a lot will depend on the players out of contract at the various clubs as to how well they go. We have most of ours for at least another season......we might well lose Broom if Posh want a fee but will have George Cooper back fit ( I hope). Garrick may be out of contract at Swansea....but is young so probably a fee there too potentially....

Every chance Cooper the keeper will be sold if the right offer comes along ( and maybe with a loan back if we do go up , but I expect him to be playing Championship football next season or the season after as a minimum, ideally with us but not necessarily. Sessegnon is out of contract and looks a good player.

We need someone to drive us forward....much as I hate to say it someone like Morsy would be perfect....just ideally not him! George Honeyman would be a better option but unlikely....

Plus there will be a whole heap of players looking for homes....so lots of opportunities to strengthen.

I expect Ipswich to be strong next season with a couple of United loanees given McKennas background, plus Derby assuming they are not encumbered with points deductions again....Barnsley/Posh could go either way.....Portsmouth /Charlton can\'t be that bad again.....the three that don't make it from this seasons shoot out and the next seasons Argyle...whoever they might be....anyone but Exeter I hope!

You have the chance to build early which the play offs always get in the way off...and we have a truncated close season thanks to the World Cup.....so we will all be back soon enough

Got to say I think you might miss out, as you have to play MK and Wycombe will surely beat Burton. Hope I'm wrong though.

 

[IsleofWightYellow]

If the thought process is we aren't good enough anyway to have beaten other Play Off contenders, why are people so fired up about not making them.

Well first of all we beat MK who may well be one of the highest ranked playoff teams, so clearly we can beat them. Plus anything can happen in a two-legged tie.

I don’t understand how you don’t see that finishing in the playoffs is an achievement in itself. It extends the season, you get the revenue from at least another full house, and you effectively buy a ticket for promotion - you just need to beat two other teams and you’re in the Championship.

Basically this season would be much better if we were in the playoffs, and it would for sure be a form of success - no matter what happened next.

 

[horseman]

Well first of all we beat MK who may well be one of the highest ranked playoff teams, so clearly we can beat them. Plus anything can happen in a two-legged tie.

I don’t understand how you don’t see that finishing in the playoffs is an achievement in itself. It extends the season, you get the revenue from at least another full house, and you effectively buy a ticket for promotion - you just need to beat two other teams and you’re in the Championship.

Basically this season would be much better if we were in the playoffs, and it would for sure be a form of success - no matter what happened next.

not me thinking that, it's others whose opinion is we were not good enough anyway and likely same one's + a few others demanding Top 2 next season

i've said it enough times throughout the season, it's about accumulating enough points regardless of how achieved

 

[SirAndyOfCrosby]

So does this mean we make a solid start, are conceding too many between half time and 75 minutes, but then picking up in the final 1/4? (conversely other teams doing the opposite?)

Not quite. If you actually look at the number of goals conceded by 10 minute intervals, it's actually fairly evenly distributed.
It's actually that our goals FOR dry up in that period.
Just 14 of our 81 goals (17%) have been scored between 51-80 minutes (effectively 1/3 of the match).
In terms of goals scored vs goals conceded totals - we've 'lost' the period 51-60 minutes, the period 61-70 minutes, and drawn the period 71-80 minutes (5-5) - winning all other 10 minute segments of games.
The period 51-60 minutes is by far our worst, having scored the fewest in this period (4) and conceded the most of any period (10).

Again, just facts for those who may find them interesting. As to why that is - it's up for debate.
However, it's not just statistic for statistics sakes - again no-one else in the Top 8 has stats anywhere close to this.
Others have 'lost' 10-minute periods, but not back-to-back periods and typically not by more than a goal or two.
The concentration of our 3 'bad' periods from 51-80 minutes and the scale of the deficit suggests it's a problem area for us.
It actually gets worse if you break it down Home v Away. We've won the first 30 minutes of away games 17-5. We've lost 31-80 minutes 10-24.

As an aside, I found it interesting that for the 2 other Top 8 sides that have had one seriously dodgy 10 minute period (though just 10 minutes) - MK Dons and Plymouth - in both cases it is the opening 10 minutes (so perhaps expect a cagey start on Saturday)!
MK Dons, amazingly, have not scored a League goal in the first 10 minutes this season...

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Not quite. If you actually look at the number of goals conceded by 10 minute intervals, it's actually fairly evenly distributed.
It's actually that our goals FOR dry up in that period.
Just 14 of our 81 goals (17%) have been scored between 51-80 minutes (effectively 1/3 of the match).
In terms of goals scored vs goals conceded totals - we've 'lost' the period 51-60 minutes, the period 61-70 minutes, and drawn the period 71-80 minutes (5-5) - winning all other 10 minute segments of games.
The period 51-60 minutes is by far our worst, having scored the fewest in this period (4) and conceded the most of any period (10).

Again, just facts for those who may find them interesting. As to why that is - it's up for debate.
However, it's not just statistic for statistics sakes - again no-one else in the Top 8 has stats anywhere close to this.
Others have 'lost' 10-minute periods, but not back-to-back periods and typically not by more than a goal or two.
The concentration of our 3 'bad' periods from 51-80 minutes and the scale of the deficit suggests it's a problem area for us.
It actually gets worse if you break it down Home v Away. We've won the first 30 minutes of away games 17-5. We've lost 31-80 minutes 10-24.

As an aside, I found it interesting that for the 2 other Top 8 sides that have had one seriously dodgy 10 minute period (though just 10 minutes) - MK Dons and Plymouth - in both cases it is the opening 10 minutes (so perhaps expect a cagey start on Saturday)!
MK Dons, amazingly, have not scored a League goal in the first 10 minutes this season...

Not sure where you are getting that info from re the timing of the goals because your numbers are way off.


Edited because i just realised it was up to the 80th, not 90th... My mistake, still going to leave this here as the last
15 minutes are worth noting and suggest we finish pretty strongly.

 

[MarkG]

League One - Table by minutes

This is how the League One table in season 21/22 would look if only goals of the 90 minutes of regular time counted.

www.transfermarkt.com

Look at the table if every game finished after half an hour!

 

[Berliner]

Edit: After a tenth placed finish next season where we have played some teams off the park but lost silly games and the good sides have found a way past us we are going to be having the exact same conversation, yet again. Oxford under KR is becoming groundhog day - good to watch but the same season roughly on repeat.

This won't happen...as soon as promotion (even automatic promotion) is in doubt then KR will be given the heave-ho.

 

[Oxymoron]

found it.
If matches finished after 1/4 of an hour we would be second.


If the matches finished at half time we would be 4th

League One - Table by minutes

This is how the League One table in season 21/22 would look if only goals of the 90 minutes of regular time counted.

www.transfermarkt.com

If the matches finished at 75 minutes we would be 10th.

League One - Table by minutes

This is how the League One table in season 21/22 would look if only goals of the 90 minutes of regular time counted.

www.transfermarkt.com

Whereas we are currently 8th.
So does this mean we make a solid start, are conceding too many between half time and 75 minutes, but then picking up in the final 1/4? (conversely other teams doing the opposite?)

and we've picked up 5 points after the 90 minutes

Yet we have picked up more points after 75 minutes bar everyone except Wigan....

League One Points Won/Lost

English League One stats

www.soccerstats.com

 

[Wandering Yellow]

This won't happen...as soon as promotion (even automatic promotion) is in doubt then KR will be given the heave-ho.

I would feel bad for him in a way as he has lots of good qualities as a manager but lacks cutting edge and tactical ability. He would do well at a lower championship club where there is no expectation to do anything.

 

[werthersoriginal]

I would feel bad for him in a way as he has lots of good qualities as a manager but lacks cutting edge and tactical ability. He would do well at a lower championship club where there is no expectation to do anything.

That's a good point - I reckon that if he got us up and had a reasonably competitive budget he might keep us lower mid table, playing good stuff with the odd barnstorming win over West Brom or similar. Reliably grinding out results every week is less his forte.

 

[MC Yellow]

League One - Table by minutes

This is how the League One table in season 21/22 would look if only goals of the 90 minutes of regular time counted.

www.transfermarkt.com

Look at the table if every game finished after half an hour!

Fitness