Matches Top 6 Race 2023/24

[m]

I think you are the only one since we have 7 games left

10, obvs.

 

[billyturleyscurlywurly]

With our next 3 being so winnable before the Peterborough game where they may be treading water due to not being able to get top 2 and not being able to drop out of the top 6, we could put a nice cushion between us and a couple of the others.

The Lincoln & Stevenage games will be far nicer going in to them if they’re having to come to our place and both win.

 

[MC Yellow]

We need to ensure that by the time we get to the Lincoln and Stevenage games, we have the securing of 6th place in our own hands. Two wins and a draw prior to the Peterborough game may just do that.

If we can’t then capitalise on that by knocking Lincoln and Stevenage out of the race with 2 home games, we don’t deserve to book 6th spot.

Fun run in

 

[MarkG]

looks like this is a better place than the FV thread.
The Blackpool gazette have another one of their end of season predictions.
10 Orient 69
9 Blackpool 71
8 Oxford 76
7 Lincoln 76
6 Stevenage 79
5 Bolton 85
4 Posh 86
3 Barnsley 87
2,1 and Derby pip Pompey to the title on better GD +8 with both on 95 points.

Where Blackpool are now expected to finish in League One after Wigan defeat

The remainder of the 2023/24 League One season has received its final outcome.

www.blackpoolgazette.co.uk

 

[BicesterU]

For me, the reality seems to be that outside of the top five - who will be the top five come the end of the season - the remaining five teams vying for 6th have all seriously lacked consistency, and that's why we're all where we are. We're all good enough on our day, but not having enough 'days' to have done it the easy way.

When you combine the w/l/d over the last five games (excluding Lincoln, who are on a hell of a run), then us, Stevenage, Blackpool and Orient have lost more games in the last five then we've won - nine losses versus seven wins.

You'd back Stevenage to beat Carlisle on Saturday to leapfrog us again, of course, but then on Good Friday they play Bolton while we play Shrewsbury, then we play Fleetwood and they play an improving Charlton, so by Easter Monday we could've risen (pun intended) above them with the same number of games played.

One thing's for sure though - it's all still to play for, and you'd be mad to back any side above the others.

 

[MarkG]

looks like this is a better place than the FV thread.
The Blackpool gazette have another one of their end of season predictions.
10 Orient 69
9 Blackpool 71
8 Oxford 76
7 Lincoln 76
6 Stevenage 79
5 Bolton 85
4 Posh 86
3 Barnsley 87
2,1 and Derby pip Pompey to the title on better GD +8 with both on 95 points.

Where Blackpool are now expected to finish in League One after Wigan defeat

The remainder of the 2023/24 League One season has received its final outcome.

www.blackpoolgazette.co.uk

Imagine if we went into the last game on 76 points level with Lincoln and Stevenage.
Mousinho does us a favour and Pompey beat Lincoln away.
It's now down to the last minute and it's 0-0 Exeter Oxford, and 0-0 Stevenage Cheltenham.

 

[Swaby39]

Would people prefer to make the play offs but get beaten comfortably over 2 legs or just miss out on them?

Without question you’d want to be in it, no matter how low one might rate our chances. Once you’re in, it’s a clean slate.

But thinking about it another way, if we finish 6th it’ll likely be because we’ve won 5 or more of our last 8 games and lost a maximum of two, perhaps less. It would mean someone is still scoring goals, the defence is pulling itself together and we have a somewhat settled side. So thinking forward to how we’ll feel at that point, we would be approaching it with much more optimism than if they kicked off tomorrow. If we miss out it’ll be because none of the above is true, hasn’t been for 3 quarters of the season and can therefore have few complaints.

We’re in it, but can’t afford another slip up.

 

[BicesterU]

Another thing to say: almost regardless of results before then, and regardless of how people think we're playing, and regardless of what we need from those games, whether we deserve to finish in the play-offs, etc., we absolutely need to be 100% behind the team for 270 minutes plus injury time for those three home games against Peterborough, Lincoln and Stevenage.

 

[MateoCorbo'sTackle]

It will be tight at the end - but I think Lincoln will maintain some semblance of form and pip us by 2 or so. Those second halves against Northampton and Reading will, I'm very afraid, come back to haunt us.

 

[MustardYellow]

To be honest, it's shocking we're even in with a shout.

Since Des came in we've got 28 points from 23 games with a -5 goal difference. For context, during the same time period Cheltenham have played 3 less games and have gained 26 points with a -1 goal difference, and we all saw how poor they are.

Is the league competitive? Definitely. Does that make it a good league in terms of quality of the teams? Absolutely not.

Pompey aren't anything special and have looked like their going to win the league with some breathing room for months.

 

[Ox4Eva]

At this stage of the season it's all about momentum, we often see a team come up on the rails and grab a play off spot.

We just need to get right behind the lads and stop whinging!

 

[MC Yellow]

To be honest, it's shocking we're even in with a shout.

Since Des came in we've got 28 points from 23 games with a -5 goal difference. For context, during the same time period Cheltenham have played 3 less games and have gained 26 points with a -1 goal difference, and we all saw how poor they are.

Is the league competitive? Definitely. Does that make it a good league in terms of quality of the teams? Absolutely not.

Pompey aren't anything special and have looked like their going to win the league with some breathing room for months.

Despite what you have said, they are still in a relegation spot, have only taken 2 points form there last 5 games and it bears no relevance anyway. Our season will be defined by our push for the finish line and how we compete against those around us, which is looking like it could well be a photo finish.

I'm now trying to forget what has gone before and how we got here. This is where our season starts, and as you have said, the quality is poor across the board so a small uplift in our levels and some consistency should get us over the lane. The opposite is equally true of course.

Can Des squeeze enough points out of this squad and will the players step up and deliver 6 decent performances? Who the heck knows but it is all still to play for and it will be an exciting run in.

 

[dickwalton1964]

To be honest, it's shocking we're even in with a shout.

Since Des came in we've got 28 points from 23 games with a -5 goal difference. For context, during the same time period Cheltenham have played 3 less games and have gained 26 points with a -1 goal difference, and we all saw how poor they are.

Is the league competitive? Definitely. Does that make it a good league in terms of quality of the teams? Absolutely not.

Pompey aren't anything special and have looked like their going to win the league with some breathing room for months.

Spot on. This is undoubtedly the year to go up. If we'd had just been half decent I think we'd have claimed an automatic place. That's the frustration, there isn't really a quality side up there - they'd all struggle in the Championship, I think.

 

[SirAndyOfCrosby]

I believe every team should win at least 4 of their games with Blackpool winning 5.

No chance. That would require almost universal increases in PPG from here on out - even without accounting for draws.

One, two, maybe three sides might do it? But all five?

I suspect at least two of the five will fail to get another 10 points this season, barely scraping 70 points.

Perhaps another two will be at or around their PPG (so another 11 or 12 points) and finish (depending on who it is) in the low-mid 70s.

And perhaps the final side will excel and achieve 14+ points, taking them past 75 points and into the play-offs. At a push, maybe two sides achieve this points tally and GD comes into play.

With our GD, we probably need to be in that final bracket - so either 5 wins (or 4 wins and 2 draws).

 

[yellowbow]

It all depends on Lincoln and if they can keep this form up. They are in the same form as we were at the start of the season but scoring goals for fun on top.
I actually think the international break has come at a bad time for them as they won’t want 2 weeks off.
For us I think it has come at the perfect time to regroup, got a win going into it.

If I was Des I’d maybe go old school and let the players have a team bonding session and send them out on the P**s. It sounds strange but it can actually bring a team together going into the last stage of the season.
West Brom did it in the season they stayed up on the last day of the season and they went abroad, basically on a lads holiday and it brought everyone together.

Des should go with them. If some of the rumours are true about a lack of respect from the players then nothing will turn it around quicker than for them to see him stood topless on a bar stool, pissing into a pint glass, with a club tie round his head.

Could be the boost we need going into the final games.

 

[werthersoriginal]

Despite what you have said, they are still in a relegation spot, have only taken 2 points form there last 5 games and it bears no relevance anyway. Our season will be defined by our push for the finish line and how we compete against those around us, which is looking like it could well be a photo finish.

I'm now trying to forget what has gone before and how we got here. This is where our season starts, and as you have said, the quality is poor across the board so a small uplift in our levels and some consistency should get us over the lane. The opposite is equally true of course.

Can Des squeeze enough points out of this squad and will the players step up and deliver 6 decent performances? Who the heck knows but it is all still to play for and it will be an exciting run in.

It;s reasonable to expect two wins over Easter and if so it's GAME ON! It;s the hope that kills you.

 

[BicesterU]

I've just carried out some scientific research, and it took me about a dozen goes to get Oxford finishing in 6th on this website: https://thefishy.co.uk/football-calculator.php simulating all of the results.

 

[Bitter]

We are only in 6th place due to the 9 wins from 11 games Manning got us at the start of season .
Other than that we are plummeting like stone and have been since Des first arrived .
I think it will take a miracle to make the play offs now .
The decline in performances and structure to our game plan in recent months has been failure of the highest order .
We are 2 poor home results away from it being a bad history statistic for another season .

Out of interest, are you saying if Manning had stayed we would be in the top six, because his record at Bristol City would suggest otherwise.

 

[MustardYellow]

Despite what you have said, they are still in a relegation spot, have only taken 2 points form there last 5 games and it bears no relevance anyway. Our season will be defined by our push for the finish line and how we compete against those around us, which is looking like it could well be a photo finish.

I'm now trying to forget what has gone before and how we got here. This is where our season starts, and as you have said, the quality is poor across the board so a small uplift in our levels and some consistency should get us over the lane. The opposite is equally true of course.

Can Des squeeze enough points out of this squad and will the players step up and deliver 6 decent performances? Who the heck knows but it is all still to play for and it will be an exciting run in.

I was more just using them as a reference point to how bad we've been - less points per game than a poor team (as we all saw) in the relegation zone.

A couple of weeks ago I didn't think we'd get playoffs, but those Cheltenham & Port Vale games have really given perspective on just how bad a lot of this league is, and we've still got some of them to play.

To touch on your last point, it's certainly an exciting prospect... until you actually start watching the game, then you remember how boring we are to watch regardless of the circumstances!

 

[BicesterU]

Let's all just remember the golden rule come April 27th:

A) If we're not in the play-offs, it's because we were rubbish
B) If we are in the play-offs, we're still rubbish but others were rubbisher.

Either way, we're rubbish whatever the outcome.