Matches Top 6 Race 2023/24

[WRox]

I'm not sure I concur with that view about players being on the beach etc. It's their last game of football for two or three months. Most, if not all, will want to go out with one final flourish. A striker, for instance, no way he will want to fire a blank and a free hit game is one of the only times, as a striker, that he can think of himself and be a bit greedy with no team prize at stake. Defenders and keepers will be desperate to end on a clean sheet and start the new season as they ended this one.

I'm yet to see a final game team, with nothing to play for, roll over and have their tummies tickled by a team gunning for a prize. No one likes anyone celebrating in their own back yard and Exeter will be no different. Biggest myth in football - there wont be many last game deciders like this where's there's a 4, 5 nil battering, most of them are tight and explode the myth that the team with nothing to play for just takes it easy.

No I agree and we saw that when Accrington beat Pompey for us the other year.

Where there is a drop off is when teams mix and match their selections. We see every year the impact that lack of consistency and cohesion has when PL teams make 7 or 8 changes in the domestic cups.

I can see Pompey giving one or two opportunities on the last day and with that combined with a slight drop off in intensity which feels natural, I’d probably fancy a full strength Cheltenham battling to stay up to give Lincoln more of a game.

Caldwell’s spoken openly about his selection on Saturday - for example Yanic didn’t play because they want him to stay but haven’t worked out a deal, Eisa’s going back. I suppose there might be one or two out of contract in the summer who don’t fancy risking injury in a meaningless game as well.

No easy games, but all those things combined, I wouldn’t want to be going to Exeter in 7th.

 

[Steve Gilbert]

Yep - I would far rather play against a relaxed opposition in the last game than one that needs to fight for points. Back in the nineties, I'm sure we won 5-0 at home on the last day of the season against relaxed opposition but still went down because QPR won 6-0 against their relaxed opposition. Two large home wins for previously struggling sides!

We beat Barnsley I think 5-1 on the last day the season they were promoted to the Premier League. They weren't just on the beach, they had turned up having been on the P**s all the way down from Yorkshire!

Have a look at some recent final day games in similar circumstances - the results suggest otherwise. I've never seen us take it easy and I genuinely don't agree that players just coast through. Football is a job in terms of livelihood but, lets be honest, it's not a job in the real meaning of the word. Players think of themselves before anything (I've had that from the horses mouth in more than one conversation), so on that basis alone why would their professional pride not kick in?

Anyway, it's high likely Exeter wont be the only supposedly 'on the beach team'. Stevenage will be too by the time that game comes around so that's six points guaranteed from the last two. Just beat Lincoln and we are there. Easy.

Again, you give some players far too much credit. I have worked for clubs where we have played teams who may as well have played in flip flops. I have also been in a dressing room where a manager has told his players to just enjoy themselves and don't get any injuries so they can enjoy their summer!

 

[dickwalton1964]

We beat Barnsley I think 5-1 on the last day the season they were promoted to the Premier League. They weren't just on the beach, they had turned up having been on the P**s all the way down from Yorkshire!


Again, you give some players far too much credit. I have worked for clubs where we have played teams who may as well have played in flip flops. I have also been in a dressing room where a manager has told his players to just enjoy themselves and don't get any injuries so they can enjoy their summer!

So how do you explain the Accrington result at Pompey, pointed out above, that helped us out? They had nothing to play for whereas Pompey, at home with that crowd behind them, had everything to play for.

 

[Wallop]

Have a look at some recent final day games in similar circumstances - the results suggest otherwise. I've never seen us take it easy and I genuinely don't agree that players just coast through. Football is a job in terms of livelihood but, lets be honest, it's not a job in the real meaning of the word. Players think of themselves before anything (I've had that from the horses mouth in more than one conversation), so on that basis alone why would their professional pride not kick in?

Anyway, it's high likely Exeter wont be the only supposedly 'on the beach team'. Stevenage will be too by the time that game comes around so that's six points guaranteed from the last two. Just beat Lincoln and we are there. Easy.

I was thinking this might be to our advantage too as they could be out of it by 19th April. However, I'm not sure Steve Evans is the type of manager who would let his team take it easy in a match.

 

[dickwalton1964]

I was thinking this might be to our advantage too as they could be out of it by 19th April. However, I'm not sure Steve Evans is the type of manager who would let his team take it easy in a match.

Agree and I wouldn't say Gary Caldwell is either.

 

[SteMerritt]

So how do you explain the Accrington result at Pompey, pointed out above, that helped us out? They had nothing to play for whereas Pompey, at home with that crowd behind them, had everything to play for.

I mentioned that in my reply earlier, the 'on the beach' thing has a flip-side, where teams with nothing to play for suddenly have no pressure on them and can play with more freedom because of it. This is what did for Pompey that day, they buckled under the weight of expectation. Oh, and the Accrington keeper had a worldie as well, he should have been given the freedom of Oxford for his performance that day.

 

[Steve Gilbert]

So how do you explain the Accrington result at Pompey, pointed out above, that helped us out? They had nothing to play for whereas Pompey, at home with that crowd behind them, had everything to play for.

Exactly what @SteMerritt said and some teams will get results due to the lack of pressure on them. We have already seen it this season with Carlisle when they were all but down started picking up some freak results.
Newport players have suddenly decided their season is over and their manager has come out and said they need to have some professional pride and not just think they can step off it now.
Just because it doesn't apply to every team (I can't imagine Steve Evans letting his players get away with it) doesn't mean that it doesn't happen all over the country on the last day of the season.
I was also talking from my own experiences of seeing it happen first hand.

 

[dickwalton1964]

Exactly what @SteMerritt said and some teams will get results due to the lack of pressure on them. We have already seen it this season with Carlisle when they were all but down started picking up some freak results.
Newport players have suddenly decided their season is over and their manager has come out and said they need to have some professional pride and not just think they can step off it now.
Just because it doesn't apply to every team (I can't imagine Steve Evans letting his players get away with it) doesn't mean that it doesn't happen all over the country on the last day of the season.
I was also talking from my own experiences of seeing it happen first hand.

Yes, I understand that, but no way I'd be relying on it as an Oxford, fan, player or coaching staff. As someone else said Evans is highly unlikely to give it anything less than the maximum to try and mess up another clubs chances - he'd take immense pleasure in that and they are a classic example of a team who'd hate the opposition celebrating something.

On another note, when do these players officially give up? There must be 10 teams in each division - 40 across the PL and EFL - who have nothing to play for and had nothing to play for for a week or two now. Is it a last game thing or should we worry that Wigan (who have nothing left) will just fold after the first crunching Lincoln tackle on Saturday? I'm not sure why teams suddenly give up on the last day but not 2 or 3 games before the end when their seasons are effectively over.

 

[Steve Gilbert]

Yes, I understand that, but no way I'd be relying on it as an Oxford, fan, player or coaching staff. As someone else said Evans is highly unlikely to give it anything less than the maximum to try and mess up another clubs chances - he'd take immense pleasure in that and they are a classic example of a team who'd hate the opposition celebrating something.

On another note, when do these players officially give up? There must be 10 teams in each division - 40 across the PL and EFL - who have nothing to play for and had nothing to play for for a week or two now. Is it a last game thing or should we worry that Wigan (who have nothing left) will just fold after the first crunching Lincoln tackle on Saturday? I'm not sure why teams suddenly give up on the last day but not 2 or 3 games before the end when their seasons are effectively over.

I don't think anyone is relying on Exeter deciding to throw it in on the last day are they?

Well Newport as an example have gone early. Players also have contracts to earn or potential summer moves if they know scouts are watching so that is why you don't seem a massive drop off until a few games to go/the last day.

 

[Foley]

Exeter have already started leaving first team players out.
On the last day of the season it is not unusual for teams like Exeter to give 2 or 3 academy players debuts.
If the team needing 3 points go out all guns blazing and throw themselves into tackles, I am not sure that anybody would be too surprised if the team 'on the beach' don't really fancy it too much.

Of course, as others have said, the team needing 3 points can still bottle it ( which Pompey did to a certain extent v Accrington)

 

[PottersRightBoot]

Conclusion. You can’t second guess any games.

All I would say is that we’ve got to retain our current mindset of going for it.

Please, no more hanging on to 1-0 leads for most of the game.

Were not set up for that any more.

 

[OX14]

So how do you explain the Accrington result at Pompey, pointed out above, that helped us out? They had nothing to play for whereas Pompey, at home with that crowd behind them, had everything to play for.

I didn't think there was a crowd in the ground due to COVID restrictions?

 

[billyturleyscurlywurly]

Our last 4 games are against sides in the current top half (top 12).

Our current record versus sides in the top half (top 12) under Buckingham:

Played: 11
Won: 0
Draws: 4
Losses: 7

Still a long long way to go!

Blackpool and Stevenage could well be back in in tomorrow night with their games

 

[Scotchegg]

Our last 4 games are against sides in the current top half (top 12).

Our current record versus sides in the top half (top 12) under Buckingham:

Played: 11
Won: 0
Draws: 4
Losses: 7

Still a long long way to go!

Blackpool and Stevenage could well be back in in tomorrow night with their games

If we are going to use past games as an indicator of future results then why not use these;

Peterborough 3 Oxford 0
Lincoln 0 Oxford 2
Stevenage 1 Oxford 3
Oxford 3 Exeter 0

Repeat these results and we'll finish on 79 points with Lincoln only able to get a maximum of 77, Blackpool 76 and Stevenage 73.

 

[billyturleyscurlywurly]

If we are going to use past games as an indicator of future results then why not use these;

Peterborough 3 Oxford 0
Lincoln 0 Oxford 2
Stevenage 1 Oxford 3
Oxford 3 Exeter 0

Repeat these results and we'll finish on 79 points with Lincoln only able to get a maximum of 77, Blackpool 76 and Stevenage 73.

Because those 3 wins were under a different manager as stated.

If those reverse results happen and we finish on 79 with 3 wins from 4 then all credit to Des.

 

[Steve Gilbert]

Because those 3 wins were under a different manager as stated.

If those reverse results happen and we finish on 79 with 3 wins from 4 then all credit to Des.

We are also in better form and playing better than when we last had a run of games against the top sides...

 

[Leysboy]

I think we and Lincoln will catch Barnsley and they will miss out.

Just my opinion, but they have a dreadful run in.

 

[Scotchegg]

I wonder if Barnsley players have downed tools?

 

[Peterdev]

Anything could happen. I wouldn’t be surprised to Barnsley miss out and Oxford and Lincoln sneak in.
Bolton is the team I’d fear in the play offs after what happened a couple of weeks ago

 

[Marked Ox]

Anything could happen. I wouldn’t be surprised to Barnsley miss out and Oxford and Lincoln sneak in.
Bolton is the team I’d fear in the play offs after what happened a couple of weeks ago

Missing out on the automatics right at the end can have a really negative effect for some teams so hopefully that if we make it to 6th then that is the case whoever it is.