Away Match Build Up 27/04/2024: L1 - Exeter City v OUFC

What will the result be?


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An early goal is key in this game. Not for our actual game versus Exeter but for Barnsley & Lincoln fans.

We need the news to filter through to their home stadiums that Oxford have taken the lead.

This could make a real big difference.
 
I don't care if its the 98th minute and we get in the play offs 🙏🤞
 
REF WATCH

F2YmLnGXQBovJnt


Coventry based Tom Reeves is Saturday’s referee for the big match at SJP. Promoted to the EFL in 2021, he has refereed 34 matches this season issuing
109 yellow cards and four reds Has refereed three U’s games before:

December 2021: MK Dons 1-2 Oxford Utd
August 2022: Oxford Utd 1-0 Cambridge Utd
April 2023: FGR 0-3 Oxford Utd
So he was the ref for our last away game and the match which gained us mathematical safety last season . An omen perhaps?
 
It's not a strategy, I'm just saying we don't have to win, so therefore it's not must win.
Didn’t say you did, just saying that would be a risky strategy!

Or you could say we win and still don’t make the play offs, but we’d probably give ourselves a better chance if we do win!
 
We need a win and must hope that either Lincoln or Barnsley lose or draw.
If we draw, it will only be enough if Barnsley lose as we have a better GD, or if Lincoln lose.
I think?
 
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£30 on the coach, leaves ground 7.30. Picks up at Redbridge, also will drop off up Glenoble Road on return for those parking there Stops in road outside away end at Exeter unless they have changed it since our last visit, so no hassle, save £40 on quoted train fare.
 
An early goal is key in this game. Not for our actual game versus Exeter but for Barnsley & Lincoln fans.

We need the news to filter through to their home stadiums that Oxford have taken the lead.

This could make a real big difference.
Looking at ours and Exeter’s goal scoring records this season -
  • Exeter don’t often concede in the first half an hour. Just 12 early goals all season.
  • Exeter conceded 14 goals between 31-45mins but their weakest time is in the final 15mins of a game (conceded 17).
  • Exeter’s top league scorers are Reece Cole (7) & Sonny Cox (5).
  • Exeter have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their matches.
  • When Exeter have taken the lead this season, only 7 teams managed an equaliser.
  • Exeter home games aren’t often big-scoring events: their most common home scores are 0-0 (4 times) & 1-0 (4 times).

  • Oxford’s top league scorers are Harris (14) & CamBran (11).
  • Oxford have taken the lead in 33 games, conceded an equaliser in 12 of those matches, conceded first 24 times and only managed an equaliser ourselves 11 times.
  • We’ve scored first in the first 15mins 10 times (conceding 4 in that period), 13 times in the 16-30 min period (10 against), scored 13 and conceded 7 in the 15mins before half-time, scored 14 (and let in 6) just after half-time, we score infrequently in the 61-75mins period when we tend to make the most substitutions (6 for 9 against), but our most prolific period is the final 15mins when we’ve scored 21 but conceded 19.
  • Our most common away scores are either 2-0 losses or 1-1 draws (both happened 3 times).
The previous game between the 2 sides at the KassStad ended in a 3-0 win to us when RR scored early and CamBran hit 2 late penalties but Exeter had the most possession (63%) and the most shots and corners.

I think this will be a 1-1 draw or narrow home win.
 
No doubt this is wishful thinking and own-club bias but I think Barnsley and Lincoln will draw and we will just about have enough about us to sneak a win - getting us over the line. Exeter's season is over (pressure off but not much to play for apart from maybe a new contract and their futures).

Mous has admitted his team need to turn up and produce a decent performance for the sake of the integrity of the league. Portmouth won't quite manage the win as Lincoln want it more but pressure can do funny things.

There - cursed it now, apologies in advance.
 
REF WATCH

F2YmLnGXQBovJnt


Coventry based Tom Reeves is Saturday’s referee for the big match at SJP. Promoted to the EFL in 2021, he has refereed 34 matches this season issuing
109 yellow cards and four reds Has refereed three U’s games before:

December 2021: MK Dons 1-2 Oxford Utd
August 2022: Oxford Utd 1-0 Cambridge Utd
April 2023: FGR 0-3 Oxford Utd
His past OUFC matches:

 
A few weeks ago the discussion was how many points do we need to get into the play-offs. Most felt our current total (74) would not be enough, but 75 might. 77 would easily get us there. So here we are going into the final day of the season ...

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It has to be a win for the Us and if we come up short we at least achieved a target, albeit one not openly talked about, and can say we've had a satisfactory season based on where we were last time around My worry is we will prove the statisticians right, get an unlucky draw, end up on 75 points and finish 7th or 8th. I hope this fate falls to Lincoln or Barnsley.

Come on you yellows!
 
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