Manager/Coach Des Buckingham

There’s a reason why I think these next 3 at home are so big and that’s because of the following stats:

Our current record versus sides in the current top half under Buckingham:

Played: 11
Won: 0
Draws: 4
Losses: 7

Our current record versus sides in the current bottom half under Buckingham:

Played: 15
Won: 9
Draws: 4
Losses: 2

Sorry for not being convinced, but you can’t argue against those stats.

Hopefully I can add 3 wins versus top half sides after next Friday nights game.
 
billyturleyscurlywurly said:
There’s a reason why I think these next 3 at home are so big and that’s because of the following stats:

Our current record versus sides in the current top half under Buckingham:

Played: 11
Won: 0
Draws: 4
Losses: 7

Our current record versus sides in the current bottom half under Buckingham:

Played: 15
Won: 9
Draws: 4
Losses: 2

Sorry for not being convinced, but you can’t argue against those stats.

Hopefully I can add 3 wins versus top half sides after next Friday nights game.
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You just posted similar in another thread.
 
billyturleyscurlywurly said:
There’s a reason why I think these next 3 at home are so big and that’s because of the following stats:

Our current record versus sides in the current top half under Buckingham:

Played: 11
Won: 0
Draws: 4
Losses: 7

Our current record versus sides in the current bottom half under Buckingham:

Played: 15
Won: 9
Draws: 4
Losses: 2

Sorry for not being convinced, but you can’t argue against those stats.

Hopefully I can add 3 wins versus top half sides after next Friday nights game.
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This is it really, I wanted 9 points from Shrewsbury, Fleetwood and Burton games. Lincoln recently took 9 points from those sides but have dropped two points against Reading when we needed it.

We now have Posh, Lincoln, Stevenage and Exeter.

I think the game against each other will probably decide who takes it, and we need to hope Pompey aren't on the beach when they play Lincoln on the final game.

We have the tougher fixtures, so we if we are in the playoffs come the end we will absolutely deserve it and Des will take the plaudits for getting them playing. Otherwise it'll be as you predicted, take points from the poor sides and struggle against the decent ones falling short.

Interesting finale.
 
SirAndyOfCrosby said:
Worth mentioning that according to the fabled xG (the death knell of Manning, remember) we 'should' have scored just 1.8 goals yesterday. In fact, the last two games combined have an xG win of just 4.22-2.53 - so with a real life 8-0 aggregate win, that's a whopping net 'over-performance' of 6.31 goals.

Curious that no-one is decrying our cheating of the system or fradulent results, as per the whole of August, September and October?

Of course, the reality is that we were ruthlessly efficient under Manning - and I'm delighted that we're now seemingly rediscovering some of that under Buckingham.

We're 'beating xG' once again - and that's a good thing. It should never have been a stick to beat Manning with. And by the same token it's something to celebrate now we're back in that game under Buckingham.

This is a good development. And we've proven to be a better side for it over the course of the season.

Just pointing out the inconsistency in response to it. Feels a little 'Good Aids / Bad Aids'... 👀
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How could our xG on Saturday have just been 1.8? By the time Sparky took both of his shots, he was six yards out with noone between him and the goal. By the time he struck the ball (which, I thought, was how xG was calculated?), those two shots should basically have been an xG of as close to 1.0 each as you can get.

Then you add in all our other chances that fell inside the box (including both of the last two goals, which weren't from much more than 10 yards) and an xG of 1.8 seems impossible.

Which rather suggests that the people who are generating those stats (at League One level at least) haven't a clue what they're doing and/or are mailing it in!
 
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tonyw said:
How could our xG on Saturday have just been 1.8? By the time Sparky took both of his shots, he was six yards out with noone between him and the goal. By the time he struck the ball (which, I thought, was how xG was calculated?), those two shots should basically each have been an xG of as close to 1.0 each as you can get.

Then you add in all our other chances that fell inside the box (including both of the last two goals, which weren't from much more than 10 yards) and an xG of 1.8 seems impossible.

Which rather suggests that the people who are generating those stats (at League One level at least) haven't a clue what they're doing and/or are mailing it in!
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Would also suggest xG is a load of B*****s as it would register 0 as the xG for a ball flashed across the box and missed by a toenail like Gazza v Scotland!
 
tonyw said:
How could our xG on Saturday have just been 1.8? By the time Sparky took both of his shots, he was six yards out with noone between him and the goal. By the time he struck the ball (which, I thought, was how xG was calculated?), those two shots should basically each have been an xG of as close to 1.0 each as you can get.

Then you add in all our other chances that fell inside the box (including both of the last two goals, which weren't from much more than 10 yards) and an xG of 1.8 seems impossible.

Which rather suggests that the people who are generating those stats (at League One level at least) haven't a clue what they're doing and/or are mailing it in!
Click to expand...
Lots of variability in company xG. Fotmob, run by Opta here (for Saturday).
 
tonyw said:
That seems closer, although still a little low......
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StatsBomb have Saturday as 3.88 for Oxford with just over 3xG vs fleetwood.

Show the differences in industry numbers along with conclusions from single game stats
 
Shosho said:
StatsBomb have Saturday as 3.88 for Oxford with just over 3xG vs fleetwood.

Show the differences in industry numbers along with conclusions from single game stats
Click to expand...

Though if three separate stats organizations have watched the same game, and come up with xGs for Oxford of 1.8, 2.98 and 3.88 respectively......

......surely that stat is entirely worthless? The error bars on it are going to cover everything from 0-5!
 
battman said:
So even if he misses out by a point or two, you want us to rip up our future planning by sacking our manager who's now settled in, started to bring in his own staff, and is now shaping the squad into his vision in terms of tactics and personnel?

I think even if we lose our last four games (not that I think we will though) Des should be given the summer to see what he can do. This means shipping out the last of the poor-value players from Karl's reign and anyone who's 'downed tools', bringing in more of his style of player and backroom staff in a full summer window, and having a whole pre-season to drill his side into his way of playing.

If we sack Des, not only will that mean there's less money around for players, but it means you lose loads of time planning for the next season. Taking weeks to appoint a new manager, deciding contracts based on a new boss who's not seen them up close, and trying to start yet another rebuild with our fourth manager in less than 18 months. I feel too many in modern football are happy to call for a manager's head without thinking about the negative knock-on implications it has for the rest of the setup.
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A very sensible post, and difficult to disagree with any of it.

Personally, i've been back and forth with my opinion, originally believing that although things initially weren't going well under Des, he should be given the rest of the season and the summer to build his squad and his backroom staff, and to install his vision, tactics and philosophies.

Then things got worse, and continued to get worse, and some of the players even looked like they were no longer trying, and I changed my mind, and felt he was showing signs that he was never going to be the one to takes us forward, it all looked lost to me.

But during the last couple of games, there has been a massive improvement in performances and results, and a clear sign that there is finally a clear game plan and tactics, and there seems to be a sudden upturn in morale and togetherness in the squad.

Maybe it was the Bolton game that finally brought out something in Des that has made the players sit up and take notice, and something has finally clicked, if so, then that thrashing we were given could prove to be a blessing in disguise...

The sudden upturn has certainly caused me to switch back to my original opinion, that Des should be given the summer after all.

I am a fickle fucker though, so he's on thin ice...
 
Mad Dog said:
A very sensible post, and difficult to disagree with any of it.

Personally, i've been back and forth with my opinion, originally believing that although things initially weren't going well under Des, he should be given the rest of the season and the summer to build his squad and his backroom staff, and to install his vision, tactics and philosophies.

Then things got worse, and continued to get worse, and some of the players even looked like they were no longer trying, and I changed my mind, and felt he was showing signs that he was never going to be the one to takes us forward, it all looked lost to me.

But during the last couple of games, there has been a massive improvement in performances and results, and a clear sign that there is finally a clear game plan and tactics, and there seems to be a sudden upturn in morale and togetherness in the squad.

Maybe it was the Bolton game that finally brought out something in Des that has made the players sit up and take notice, and something has finally clicked, if so, then that thrashing we were given could prove to be a blessing in disguise...

The sudden upturn has certainly caused me to switch back to my original opinion, that Des should be given the summer after all.

I am a fickle fucker though, so he's on thin ice...
Click to expand...
Well be sure to let the club know when you decide ...
 
tonyw said:
Though if three separate stats organizations have watched the same game, and come up with xGs for Oxford of 1.8, 2.98 and 3.88 respectively......

......surely that stat is entirely worthless? The error bars on it are going to cover everything from 0-5!
Click to expand...
Depends on the quality of each provider and the characteristics they take into account.

On the most basic level, angle and distance to the goal will come up with something. StatsBomb then take into account players between the goal, goal keeper position and a host of other things (https://statsbomb.com/articles/soccer/upgrading-expected-goals/).

As to if it's useful - like all stats, depends on context. If used for a single game of 'we should have scored x but we scored x' it's a waste of time as variance is so large in football. If using for a trend over a period (e.g the Manning argument) then it has value.

The value in the current numbers is the big uptick in attacking xG with largely similar xG conceded since the Bolton defeat:
Port Vale (0.45xG) - Oxford (1.13xG)
Shrewsbury (0.82xG) - Oxford (2.0xG)
Fleetwood (1.22xG) - Oxford (3.0xG)
Burton (0.58xG) - Oxford (3.88xG)

If this can be maintained against stronger opposition is to be seen, but using the wingers and delivering balls across the six yard box is frequently creating high quality chances.
 
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Leysboy said:
Forget the improvement.

We’ve just played 3 very crap teams, and Port Vale too, all of which we should be beating. They were all extremely poor sides.

The real signs of improvement will be the next three games. If we get positive results in them. Then that will be an improvement.
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It’s still better than it was mate. The wins were by several goals. As bad as those teams are, no one else has given any of them a hiding like we have.
I try to give credit where it’s due. We are doingway better than we were about a month ago abd far better equipped to do something against these better teams than we were. We are finally going after it when one nil up and putting teams away.
We were woeful after Bolton and that’s when I decided Des had to go, but since then there HAS been improvement.
I’m a lot more optimistic now and I never thought that would happen
 
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