With the likely ban on abortion in southern states and even talk of banning contraception, surely a lot of the more educated and intelligent young people are likely to leave, and modern tech companies too. That could leave the republican states with pretty disastrous economic prospects, surely?
Interesting.
Where do you think the more extreme views are likely to lead the US?
Is there any chance at all that the US could split in 2 ( hard line states and more Liberal ones?)
I assume that the abortion issue will lead to a lot of friction ( presumably people could get up and go from states with such extreme laws?)
Is the Republican Party likely at any time to move more towards the middle ground?
Gonna try and answer this two in one succinct go (although being succinct isn't my strength).
The honest answer is that a bunch of southern republican states are already struggling economically, and have for years. Seriously, if you go and drive around places like Arkansas and Mississippi, there is real, grinding poverty and not a whole lot of economic activity. More hardline laws - especially on abortion - are probably not going to change very much. They may drive away some more educated and intelligent young people, but frankly a lot of those people have probably been leaving anyway.
The Northern republican states are a bit different - they tend to be less socially conservative, and more '**** off big government and leave me alone'. They will still likely enact some abortion restrictions, but they're mostly operating on a more libertarian, independent basis anyway - and doing much better economically than their southern counterparts. Again, I wouldn't expect a whole lot to change.
Texas is the massive oddball. Colossal state, absolute economic powerhouse but very, very divided. Their low tax rates have been attracting people from the coasts for years/decades now and places like Austin & San Antonio (and maybe Houston? Ricky Otto would be the one to ask about that!) are now liberal meccas, growing massively and economically doing great. But then great swathes of central Texas are struggling former oil towns and are ultra-conservative hotbeds.
What's going to happen in Texas if they start enacting extreme laws on abortion and other issues is anyone's guess......
The Republican Party really should split - it would be good for everyone if they did, I think.
Because at the moment they are trying to be an umbrella for populists like Trump, social conservatives
and small government fiscal conservatives. If they divided in two, then I think the centrist half would probably pick up a lot of defectors from the establishment wing of the Democrat party, and you'd probably end up with three parties of roughly equal support.
But until that happens, then the battles for the soul of the party are going to get uglier and uglier (as, to be fair, are the internal battles amongst the Democrats between the socialists and the centrists).......