Matches The League 1 Promotion Run In

[uptheus]

Some more serious things to note now that it's a little less painful:

- We probably need 4 wins from 5 to make the playoffs now. Saturday is the absolute definition of a must win. Lose that one (and assuming Wycombe/Wednesday win) and we'll be 5 points behind with 4 to play including Rotherham and MK. Lose on Saturday and its season over.

- While I know KR bashing is the flavour of the month at the moment, you do have to have a little sympathy with regards to the injury problems we've had. We went into the Morecambe game with Moore, Brannagan, Baldock, Gorrin and Browne out (and Hanson), with James Henry and Billy Bodin still on their way back from injury, McNally carrying a knock then having his nose broken mid game, and Holland coming off with a tightness after a rare good game. We've also had Covid and sickness ravage our squad a few times this season and Stevens with Glandular Fever which seems to have had a more lasting effect. There's no way around it, our injury luck this season has been mental. Just the 7 that were out/not fit enough for 90 against Morecambe would be a first 11 you'd die for in this league:

Moore
Gorrin
Brannagan Henry
Bodin Baldock Browne

Yes, defensive recruitment has been iffy this year. My understanding is in January we had two defensive players agree to sign for us, then last minute change their minds and go elsewhere. If one or both of those do join (I have no info who they were) then maybe we aren't in the position we are right now. The luck for OUFC has been seriously out most of this season, and to still be in the mix despite the bad luck and the failings in recruitment is actually quite impressive.

- Is the season over? No. Absolutely not. And I hope the players see this that the pressure is off now; we're the chasers. Time to uncage the beast and pile so much pressure on the 3 above us that they crumble and we sneak into the playoffs. Batter Sunderland on Saturday and get Wycombe and Wednesday nervously looking back like we were.

But you’ve got to have cover in those positions and he didn’t address it.

We knew Henry wouldn’t last the course and Browne was a risk. And as for defence, well guilty in my eyes!

 

[Jolteon]

I agree that we have had some very unfortunate injuries. But..

Of those you mention, Gorrin was crocked before Christmas and we signed no replacement, we signed Browne injured and then as soon as he was fit he was basically just chucked back into the team and if Stevens is still suffering then Eastwood has done little wrong in the games he has started recently. Hanson has been nowhere near the team since God was a boy.

Despite that yes - you are right, unfortunate. The argument though is not so much about that, it's more about the failure to recruit (both back in the summer and in January) sufficient quality cover in various positions when such problems occur, while retaining the likes of Mous, Hanson, Davis (who?) in the squad (to pick the three most obvious ones). And we are still at it - re signing Forde who we don't seem to use even when we have an injury crisis and a versatile player like him would seem to be exactly what we need.

So in my view, it is a combination of unfortunate long and longish term injuries to key players and having a squad that has got a very strange mixture of players in it. It's almost as if we recruit talented players and then try to shoe-horn them into a system whether they fit or not rather than buy players for the system we want to use. The result of that is a defence and defensive midfield like last night, when virtually every one of them was playing out of position. That's madness.

I really get the recruitment arguments - I do. Maybe I'm just more forgiving because the last three seasons have been the highest OUFC have been in my lifetime so I don't know better than what I've seen under KR! I think you're spot on that we've recruited talented players, rather than players that necessarily fit the system. We had plenty of players who could play winger in the club, but then Whyte and Holland became available and we just HAD to have them. Sort of the same with Browne, KR doesn't want to pass up the opportunity to have a player he knows is quality, although I have sympathy with the Browne injury because he was literally about to be subbed then took a proper whack from a Pompey player and it's that whack that has taken him out for a long time again. With hindsight it's easy to say "why did we play Browne so quick after injury" but it's still rotten luck because for the first 50 minutes he looked decent, and if he hadn't taken that hit he may have nicely filled the Baldock boots we've been missing.

Thinking ahead to next season, yes we'll probably lose a few key players, but we also have the opportunity to move on some BIG wages (and they are both on big wages) that are deadwood in the club in Winnall and Hanson. This will hopefully give us a bit more flexibility in where we spread our wages as we'll have near enough free wages for 2 first team quality players (or three squad players) to replace two injury prone players not good enough for L1. We'll have very few active deadwood in the club left - Forde is reliable backup for this league, Mous I sort of agree with but he does serve a small purpose, and Davis is clearly a cheap as chips marketing opportunity so doesn't affect the wider squad. A small silver lining, but I'll take that after last night

 

[pafcprogs]

Good morning ( well you know what I mean)

Here is a (more) dispassionate view of where you are following yesterdays hiccough. Feel free to skip past if it feels like an outsider picking over the bones too soon.

Terrible result last night, but you had a perfect storm; injuries, lots of travel ( we are used to it, other teams not so much) new manager bounce ( albeit belated), team that needed the points as much as you did, conditions levelling out the skill difference and an inspired goalkeeper....and s**t happens. You should have won.

But it has gone and it was only three points. If you pick up 12 /15 for the rest of the month you will sit the right side of the line and if anyone can prove it can be done....we have and MK have and so have Wigan, and so might Wycombe . Go round the other forums ( fora? forii??) and anyone who pronounced that Oxford are now "done" or "out of it" got very short shrift. One Mackem asked a poster if they were new to this football thing, like?

You have the perfect bounce back match. Sunderland are not scoring loads, and they will be as tense as you. Win that and you are back in the frame. Even a draw doesn't rule you out as Sunderland have to come to us and Wycome have to play us and Wendies.

So it is more difficult but far from impossible. You should ( and I know after yesterday many will roll their eyes, ) get six points from Fleetwood and Donny. That leave Rotherham and MK. Probably the best time to play Rotherham who look fatigued and have a lot of games to play. If you beat Sunderland then a point from MK is OK....but they don't destroy teams ....they kind of choke them to death like a possession python, and if I recall you beat them once already! And selfishly it would be helpful if you beat them just in case our form does continue to threaten the autos.

MK have a banana skin game v Real Wombles, as do the Chiltern Cheetahs at Gillingham. After last night they both need a result.

Fans always knee jerk results and I am not sure how long it is since you lost two in a a row, but judging by the 38 page thread it must be a while.

I am still nervous that this run we have had comes to a grinding halt and we end this season like last season , and two seasons before that when we threatened to gatecrash the playoffs but crashed and burned for the last month....plus we might get the Manager of the Month curse on Friday.....

No team is going to want to play you because you score goals....so a little defensive steel will go a long way.....

Anyway for one weekend only COYY.....I really couldn't face another semifinal against Whycome.

 

[uptheus]

Good morning ( well you know what I mean)

Here is a (more) dispassionate view of where you are following yesterdays hiccough. Feel free to skip past if it feels like an outsider picking over the bones too soon.

Terrible result last night, but you had a perfect storm; injuries, lots of travel ( we are used to it, other teams not so much) new manager bounce ( albeit belated), team that needed the points as much as you did, conditions levelling out the skill difference and an inspired goalkeeper....and s**t happens. You should have won.

But it has gone and it was only three points. If you pick up 12 /15 for the rest of the month you will sit the right side of the line and if anyone can prove it can be done....we have and MK have and so have Wigan, and so might Wycombe . Go round the other forums ( fora? forii??) and anyone who pronounced that Oxford are now "done" or "out of it" got very short shrift. One Mackem asked a poster if they were new to this football thing, like?

You have the perfect bounce back match. Sunderland are not scoring loads, and they will be as tense as you. Win that and you are back in the frame. Even a draw doesn't rule you out as Sunderland have to come to us and Wycome have to play us and Wendies.

So it is more difficult but far from impossible. You should ( and I know after yesterday many will roll their eyes, ) get six points from Fleetwood and Donny. That leave Rotherham and MK. Probably the best time to play Rotherham who look fatigued and have a lot of games to play. If you beat Sunderland then a point from MK is OK....but they don't destroy teams ....they kind of choke them to death like a possession python, and if I recall you beat them once already! And selfishly it would be helpful if you beat them just in case our form does continue to threaten the autos.

MK have a banana skin game v Real Wombles, as do the Chiltern Cheetahs at Gillingham. After last night they both need a result.

Fans always knee jerk results and I am not sure how long it is since you lost two in a a row, but judging by the 38 page thread it must be a while.

I am still nervous that this run we have had comes to a grinding halt and we end this season like last season , and two seasons before that when we threatened to gatecrash the playoffs but crashed and burned for the last month....plus we might get the Manager of the Month curse on Friday.....

No team is going to want to play you because you score goals....so a little defensive steel will go a long way.....

Anyway for one weekend only COYY.....I really couldn't face another semifinal against Whycome.

You’re going to make the play offs, could tell that after Saturday’s game and the togetherness of the team/squad, whereas, we’re having some untimely injuries to key team members and losing our flow.

Like you say, a win for us Saturday would put us back in the mix, but lose and that puts us in a very difficult position. By no means over, but the stars are not aligning for us at present.

 

[pafcprogs]

First of all from what I have seen however much it hurts to hear it I think to have got no points from your last three performances is not a realistic return on how you played.

That said the reality is is you meow need others to slip up....and you have to win at Fleetwood.

Points in your favour are that we need to take points from Wycombe and Sunderland to be sure of the play offs, and Wycombe are doing their level best to level the playing field by having injuries and players sent off ( ludicrous challenge). Welcome to the temporary Argyle supporters club.

You also have a small advantage in that by the time you play your MK home match those other games will have happened, and if we do manage to scupper one or both ( and fingers crossed for obdurate Shrewsbury to continue to mess up the Mackem pointage) what better incentive for your game versus the ground stealers.

You only need to catch Sunderland or the Wendies and trust me neither of their fan bases think they are home and hosed.....

It isn't over till it's over.

 

[Lincoln.yellow1]

First of all from what I have seen however much it hurts to hear it I think to have got no points from your last three performances is not a realistic return on how you played.

That said the reality is is you meow need others to slip up....and you have to win at Fleetwood.

Points in your favour are that we need to take points from Wycombe and Sunderland to be sure of the play offs, and Wycombe are doing their level best to level the playing field by having injuries and players sent off ( ludicrous challenge). Welcome to the temporary Argyle supporters club.

You also have a small advantage in that by the time you play your MK home match those other games will have happened, and if we do manage to scupper one or both ( and fingers crossed for obdurate Shrewsbury to continue to mess up the Mackem pointage) what better incentive for your game versus the ground stealers.

You only need to catch Sunderland or the Wendies and trust me neither of their fan bases think they are home and hosed.....

It isn't over till it's over.

i think people forget that teams above us still have to play teams above us, so all teams above us can not win all their games.
its going to be a big ask to get back into the play off positions however last season we only just made it on the last day so you are right, its not over until it is over.

 

[Bitter]

First of all from what I have seen however much it hurts to hear it I think to have got no points from your last three performances is not a realistic return on how you played.

That said the reality is is you meow need others to slip up....and you have to win at Fleetwood.

Points in your favour are that we need to take points from Wycombe and Sunderland to be sure of the play offs, and Wycombe are doing their level best to level the playing field by having injuries and players sent off ( ludicrous challenge). Welcome to the temporary Argyle supporters club.

You also have a small advantage in that by the time you play your MK home match those other games will have happened, and if we do manage to scupper one or both ( and fingers crossed for obdurate Shrewsbury to continue to mess up the Mackem pointage) what better incentive for your game versus the ground stealers.

You only need to catch Sunderland or the Wendies and trust me neither of their fan bases think they are home and hosed.....

It isn't over till it's over.

Nothing like hope is there, false or otherwise. Nice of you pafcprogs but it's gone, we can't stop leaking goals and for that reason we aren't making any playoffs this season. Good luck to the Green Army though.

 

[pafcprogs]

You might be right, but I hope you keep out interesting for the rest of the season....could do with MK being cut to ribbons just before the play offs

 

[Jolteon]

Morning everyone. After Saturday's loss I decided to give this place a wide berth - and having read through most the match day thread I'm glad I did

It looks bleak, but here's how we stand after the weekend fixtures:


Things to note:

- Is it over for OUFC? Almost certainly. But to follow on from some much needed optimism from @pafcprogs, there are some glimmers of hope, albeit very faint. We now have the easiest run in. As well as that, our rivals have some tasty games to play still too. Plymouth travel to Wycombe and host Sunderland in their next two games, if Plymouth win both of those and we beat Fleetwood and MK we're only 1 point behind, and potentially go above them if either fail to get points against Shrewsbury/Wimbledon. Wycombe and Wednesday also face each other in a 6 pointer the week after. Wednesday also have to play MK away on that ridiculous Saturday fixture, and face a final game against Pompey, while Sunderland have Rotherham in the final week. There are lots of places for the three above us to lose points, but I still think that 12 points will almost certainly be required because in this crazy season 79 points doesn't look enough. KEEP THE FAITH, the fat lady is warming up but she's not singing yet.

- Looking at the top of the table - as I predicted a few weeks ago Rotherham are throwing it away! Their form in the last 5 is so poor it matches ours, they still have to play Pompey, Ipswich, us and Sunderland, and MK don't look like losing. At this point I genuinely think we'll be seeing Rotherham in the playoffs and MK up automatically, although we will be hoping to spoil both their attempts of course.

I'll leave it there as not much else really matters at this point. We're all Plymouth fans for the Easter weekend, and despite pretty much everyone (myself included) declaring season over on Saturday, if results go our way over those 5 days we could see ourselves back breathing down the necks of our competitors, and maybe even overtaking one or two of them. The last 3 games have been painful, but back the boys and you never know what might happen.

 

[Essexyellows]

4 Cup Finals then......................... oh no, the hope is building again..............

 

[pafcprogs]

It was only a matter of time before you saw the light, however temporarily!

I do the rounds of the other sides fan sites ( although I have only really engaged properly with this one) and it is remarkable how many sides think we are goners

I think our ability to keep clean sheets will mean we are in the game most of the time and hopefully a refreshed Ryan Hardie coming back will kick start our scoring again....that might not be until Wigan away though.

I would take a draw at WW, and think we may well beat Sunderland as we have a decent track record against them recently so four points from those two would get iuus to 82....that must be enough!

On that basis four draws would also probably do it....

So I hope we win at WW obvs) and the corollary of that is you do what you should do at Fleetwood and it is once again all to play for.

All you ask for is to still be in the race at 12.30 on the 30th!

 

[werthersoriginal]

It was only a matter of time before you saw the light, however temporarily!

I do the rounds of the other sides fan sites ( although I have only really engaged properly with this one) and it is remarkable how many sides think we are goners

I think our ability to keep clean sheets will mean we are in the game most of the time and hopefully a refreshed Ryan Hardie coming back will kick start our scoring again....that might not be until Wigan away though.

I would take a draw at WW, and think we may well beat Sunderland as we have a decent track record against them recently so four points from those two would get iuus to 82....that must be enough!

On that basis four draws would also probably do it....

So I hope we win at WW obvs) and the corollary of that is you do what you should do at Fleetwood and it is once again all to play for.

All you ask for is to still be in the race at 12.30 on the 30th!

Sunderland are decent but really not unbeatable - Wycombe are a much more difficult prospect for reasons we're all aware of.

 

[NorthWestOx]

Quite simply, we have to win all 4 games now, to take us to 81 points, which might just (just!) be enough to clinch the last spot.

We won't catch the top 4, so forget them, so which 2 of Sunderland, Sheff Wed or Wycombe can we overtake?

Probably not Sunderland, even though they didn't look that good on Saturday, I can't see them not getting at least 9 points from their games.
Wycombe? Quite possibly if Plymouth do us a favour and they draw against Sheff Wed, they'd probably win the other 2 games to finish on 80/81 points.
Sheff Wed? Hopefully MK beat them and they draw at Wycombe, they would probably be on 80 points going in to the last game at home to Portsmouth.

So, it just might go down to the very last game and goal difference, possibly goals scored.

The question is, if Ronan Curtis scores a 95th minute winner for Portsmouth at Sheff Wed, that took us into the play-offs, would he cry again?

 

[MackemLad]

It was only a matter of time before you saw the light, however temporarily!

I do the rounds of the other sides fan sites ( although I have only really engaged properly with this one) and it is remarkable how many sides think we are goners

I think our ability to keep clean sheets will mean we are in the game most of the time and hopefully a refreshed Ryan Hardie coming back will kick start our scoring again....that might not be until Wigan away though.

I would take a draw at WW, and think we may well beat Sunderland as we have a decent track record against them recently so four points from those two would get iuus to 82....that must be enough!

On that basis four draws would also probably do it....

So I hope we win at WW obvs) and the corollary of that is you do what you should do at Fleetwood and it is once again all to play for.

All you ask for is to still be in the race at 12.30 on the 30th!

How exactly do you think you have a decent track record against us? We’ve played 5 times in this league and beat you in 4 of those games. Both times at HP we’ve beaten you as well. You might very well win but it’ll not be based on our recent head to head results.

FWIW I Thought Oxford were the better side at the weekend and should have taken at least a point maybe all 3. Both sides looked poor though definitely not championship material. I don’t believe that there is a stand out side in the playoffs this year, but maybe Plymouth will impress me when we play the return game..

 

[OX14]

View attachment 8620

How exactly do you think you have a decent track record against us? We’ve played 5 times in this league and beat you in 4 of those games. Both times at HP we’ve beaten you as well. You might very well win but it’ll not be based on our recent head to head results.

FWIW I Thought Oxford were the better side at the weekend and should have taken at least a point maybe all 3. Both sides looked poor though definitely not championship material. I don’t believe that there is a stand out side in the playoffs this year, but maybe Plymouth will impress me when we play the return game.

Surely who ever doesn't make the top 2 are the favourites in the play off, even though Rotherham are sliding I would say they will be a danger in the play offs, if MK don't go up automatically again they will be the dangerous side and on paper should go up.

 

[Paul Cannell]

But all 4 teams in the play-offs won't have made the top 2.

 

[MackemLad]

Surely who ever doesn't make the top 2 are the favourites in the play off, even though Rotherham are sliding I would say they will be a danger in the play offs, if MK don't go up automatically again they will be the dangerous side and on paper should go up.

I’d happily finish 6th if it was Rotherham finishing 3rd..they might have accumulated more points than anyone else but their confidence is shot. Their results and performances since February have nose dived massively.

If MK finish 3rd, then they would be the danger but I don’t see it. Rotherham miss out for me, and then it’s anyones guess as to who wins whichever teams qualify. I quietly fancy Wycombe to finish 6th and win the playoffs. Anti-football rules in this league

 

[OX14]

I quietly fancy Wycombe to finish 6th and win the playoffs. Anti-football rules in this league

I bloody hope not. For me if we don't make the play offs I hope either you or Sheffield Wednesday win the play offs as it will make next season slightly easier.

 

[SirAndyOfCrosby]

I’d happily finish 6th if it was Rotherham finishing 3rd..they might have accumulated more points than anyone else but their confidence is shot. Their results and performances since February have nose dived massively.

If MK finish 3rd, then they would be the danger but I don’t see it. Rotherham miss out for me, and then it’s anyones guess as to who wins whichever teams qualify. I quietly fancy Wycombe to finish 6th and win the playoffs. Anti-football rules in this league

Not sure that's quite as true as it may have been a couple of years ago when they last went up. Generally I think the quality of football has improved. If they don't do it this year I think we could see Wycombe struggling going forward as they may not be able to afford a chunk of their squad (Vokes for example was a 1 year deal with the option of another - which I suspect they would only take up with promotion).

 

[pafcprogs]

View attachment 8620

How exactly do you think you have a decent track record against us? We’ve played 5 times in this league and beat you in 4 of those games. Both times at HP we’ve beaten you as well. You might very well win but it’ll not be based on our recent head to head results.

FWIW I Thought Oxford were the better side at the weekend and should have taken at least a point maybe all 3. Both sides looked poor though definitely not championship material. I don’t believe that there is a stand out side in the playoffs this year, but maybe Plymouth will impress me when we play the return game..

Actually you are completely right on the track record....I don't know where I got that from!

It's a nailed on away win then