Matches The League 1 Promotion Run In

Well... That could not have gone worse. Every single one of our rivals win, and we lose by a goal when a poor refereeing decision denies us a penalty, and probably saves them from going down to 10 men. I'll leave talk of that linesman to the matchday and officials threads, but wow that was costly. Here's how things stand after the worst possible weekend:

1648917251607.png

Things to note:

- Let's get Ipswich out the way first. They lost to Cambridge and now sit 5 points behind the pack with 1 less game to play. Have fun on the beach, lads, you're off my table.

- Plymouth will decide these playoffs. They've beaten us, now we need them to go on and beat Wycombe and Sunderland for us too. It's almost at the point where you become a Plymouth fan for the next 3 games, but then hope they hit the mud for the final 2 so confidence isn't too high come the playoffs. I'll look forward to @pafcprogs thoughts on the game and the penalty.

- What an absolute gut punch it was from Wednesday and Sunderland. 92nd and 95th minute winners. If both their games end as draws that defeat doesn't feel too damaging, instead we're now out of the playoffs and it makes the next 2 games huge. We really need to win both, and if we do we'll be back in a good spot for the run in. Would 4 points be ok? Maybe. But I wouldn't be happy with it unless Wycombe and Wednesday both lose on Saturday.

- We now need a higher ppg for the rest of the season than we've achieved so far to hit 80 points. It's so tight though that win on Tuesday and we'll be back to needing less.

- If you want a sliver of good news - our run in is now the easiest of all the remaining challengers, which feels baffling to say when we still have Sunderland, MK and Rotherham to play. This means that I still have us as just barely favourites to take 6th place over Wycombe and Sunderland. It is still completely in our hands because of the Sunderland game.

Try and have a good weekend, everyone. I know it's going to be tough after today's results! We go again on Tuesday!
 
Well said, however today’s defeat seems to hurt even more than any other defeat we have had this season.
Fine margins will decide the table placings, maybe we will save our good luck for Wembley however getting to the National Stadium looks a whole lot further away after today’s results.......
 
Jolteon said:
Well... That could not have gone worse. Every single one of our rivals win, and we lose by a goal when a poor refereeing decision denies us a penalty, and probably saves them from going down to 10 men. I'll leave talk of that linesman to the matchday and officials threads, but wow that was costly. Here's how things stand after the worst possible weekend:

View attachment 8575

Things to note:

- Let's get Ipswich out the way first. They lost to Cambridge and now sit 5 points behind the pack with 1 less game to play. Have fun on the beach, lads, you're off my table.

- Plymouth will decide these playoffs. They've beaten us, now we need them to go on and beat Wycombe and Sunderland for us too. It's almost at the point where you become a Plymouth fan for the next 3 games, but then hope they hit the mud for the final 2 so confidence isn't too high come the playoffs. I'll look forward to @pafcprogs thoughts on the game and the penalty.

- What an absolute gut punch it was from Wednesday and Sunderland. 92nd and 95th minute winners. If both their games end as draws that defeat doesn't feel too damaging, instead we're now out of the playoffs and it makes the next 2 games huge. We really need to win both, and if we do we'll be back in a good spot for the run in. Would 4 points be ok? Maybe. But I wouldn't be happy with it unless Wycombe and Wednesday both lose on Saturday.

- We now need a higher ppg for the rest of the season than we've achieved so far to hit 80 points. It's so tight though that win on Tuesday and we'll be back to needing less.

- If you want a sliver of good news - our run in is now the easiest of all the remaining challengers, which feels baffling to say when we still have Sunderland, MK and Rotherham to play. This means that I still have us as just barely favourites to take 6th place over Wycombe and Sunderland. It is still completely in our hands because of the Sunderland game.

Try and have a good weekend, everyone. I know it's going to be tough after today's results! We go again on Tuesday!
Click to expand...
Thanks, great level headed reporting. Is there anything good on telly tonight?
 
Shame about today, annoying that it should have been a penalty for us!!. Must get a minimum of 4 points from our next two games to keep in touch. I'm wondering losing Baldock and Browne through injury may have cost us a playoff place at the end of season, although if we do end up in the playoffs, hopefully Baldock and Browne will be back and give us a chance for promotion this season.
 
Ok, so I decided probably best to leave some time before responding, but here for what it is worth ( and I accept for some of you that will be not much) is the "other sides view".

First of all a 1-0 away defeat is both the worst outcome but also the easiest to recover from....it probably feels worse as it was against a close rival and compounded by the late goals elsewhere , but on reflection our season didn't end when we lost 1-0 last week, and the other results whilst looking like bonus dropped points would be exactly what you would expect.

Starting pre match both teams lost key players late, with Sessegnon and Branagan, although yours was the greater late loss. I would say though that whilst you have lost a few players , we had three nailed on starters missing and a alate call up for our effective third choice left wing back....admittedly from my time on here having a third choice left wing back I know smacks of extravagance. As predicted (ahem) Scarr back, and whilst running on fumes by the end, he and Wilson (my MOM) and Gillesphey had a fine match, as did the wing backs.

The biggest change since Schumacher took ever is we have changed from being a first twenty minute team to a second half team. indeed we often look second best at the start and part of that I think is inviting the press to draw teams on but also to ensure we outlast teams. Having Camara back makes a massive difference to our ability to keep running at teams as the match wears on and his running stats are Prem level.....shame his passing stats are L1/L2 at times but he wouldn't have been a free from Crawley if they weren't! Still hasn't signed his new contract yet, but we have a years option in which to sell him on if needs be.

That chance. My first instinct was he was just off. He wasn't. My second thought was if it had been Taylor not Whyte it was a goal...I know match highlights are hardly the best medium but I have see that kind of chance for Whyte a few times in your other match highlights and rarely if ever does the net bulge.

It was a great save though. Reflex, but one we have seen a few times this season. Cooper is 22 and has over 100 L1 appearances, is improving under the high ball and six successive home clean sheets. Part of that is because the three in front of him are very good at preventing efforts even getting to him but he is a top keeper and will play in the Premier one day. So no he wasn't lucky, he is that good.

And the elephant in the room. It is tight but he is onside, and freeze-framing does the assistant no favours because it eliminates the movement. I have run the line and reffed at amateur level and its a tough concentration that can go wrong. But I do also have another thought. As the move develops an Oxford player seems to come back from an offside position and then joins the attack albeit not close to the "foul" but certainly in the area of the play and it may be that's the player who was flagged. It may be a complete red herring but now flags go up so late who knows. The old cliche is these things even themselves out. Later in the game there may have been a handball outside of the area by Eastwood, chest onto arm...its debated on Pasoti with again mixed views, as was a possible pull back on Ennis when going clear....

So half time 0-0. Second half, only one winner.....partly because we stopped trying to go so long according to the manager, partly because we started trusting ( third choice) Law, and he delivered a great cross and Joe 90 scored a terrific volley. And for all the talk of being out of sight by half time the match stats said we had one shot on target all match...and you had two.

All thoughts on the Argyle site were it was probably the best atmosphere all season, and your fans were a big part of that. Amazed they had the wind after all those balloons!

KR is getting some stick for his perceived outburst. I always think emotional responses straight after games never age well. That result pretty much seals a most unlikely play off appearance for us, and the players will have been bouncing. I don't know if Karl knows but the Sweet Caroline thing after a home win has been going since the Lowe days (and frankly many fans are fed up with it now). I suspect it was a bit of deflection on the poor second half and a gee up to his players, but claiming they should dive more....hmmm. Also slagging off match officials when they might be taking charge of the play off final or semi.....I have met him at an Argyle away game at Stevenage and chatted and liked him . We talked about Graham Carey who was stalling on his contract and he said he would love him but couldn't afford him, so I know he is smart enough to choose his words, and as I say I suspect they were for Oxford ears rather than ours.

As for the overall position, Tuesday could and should put it into perspective. Whilst Morecombe disembowelled a rapidly sinking Burton, I would think you will have too much for them up front. You just need to keep Stockton quiet although that isn't that easy. Sunderland next Saturday is the must not lose game for you. Indeed I am rooting for you as you can help enormously with them and with MK as well. Wycombe have two tricky away games...I would think four points at best and it could be 3, 2 or 1 from trips to Cambridge and the Gills. The next two Wendy games are not easy either . Bolton away then MK away over Easter....that said they could win them both.....but a draw/defeat at Bolton then a win at MK would be great for us ....

I am hoping we can put Burton away as it would be sweet to clinch play off certainty at Derek Adams Park and help to condemn them to L1 for sure....and also for it not to matter if we lose that one! I don't think two of the three above us will implode enough to allow us a late gatecrash, but as they say, it's the hope that kills you.

If the hurt subsides enough and you are happy to I'll continue the dialogue..... and I genuinely want you to make the play offs ( and not just because we have you 2 for two so far) but because compared to some of the other fan sets you are a lot more sane and rational than some....

So far anyway :)
 
Yeah, personally if we don't go up in the play-offs, I really hope Plymouth do. A side like us that doesn't see League One as "below them" and who also aren't a nasty lot like Wycombe or club-stealers like Franchise. Ideally Wigan would fall away, Plymouth go up in the autos, and Oxford win the play-offs. Tiny chance of that I'd think though.
 
Thanks Progs
Good luck for the rest of the season…………….. unless we play you again
 
pafcprogs said:
I think there is every chance of that.....I know things seem a bit bleak but you have goals in your team....and that's priceless at this time of year...
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Things don’t seem bleak thank you.
 
Technically, if we beat Sunderland and Wycombe lose to Gillingham, we’d still be well in it. It won’t happen, I know that…
 
Amidst the doom and gloom, it is worth remembering that twelve months ago today we were 12th and six points off the playoffs having just lost at home to Accrington....

....all is not lost
 
Quite. We are now sat on the proverbial shoulder of the leading pack as we turn the final bend. It's now Sheffield, Wycombe and Sunderland that have to look back nervously as well as concentrating on their own game, but we only have to play for ourselves. We will see how well we do at that on Saturday.

There could still be a photo finish to this race.
 
I can see us coming into the final game two or three points off the last play-off place and needing the help of others and falling by the wayside. But I still hope for a win on the weekend to give us momentum.
At least we have something to play for...would be boring to be in mid-table.
 
Some more serious things to note now that it's a little less painful:

- We probably need 4 wins from 5 to make the playoffs now. Saturday is the absolute definition of a must win. Lose that one (and assuming Wycombe/Wednesday win) and we'll be 5 points behind with 4 to play including Rotherham and MK. Lose on Saturday and its season over.

- While I know KR bashing is the flavour of the month at the moment, you do have to have a little sympathy with regards to the injury problems we've had. We went into the Morecambe game with Moore, Brannagan, Baldock, Gorrin and Browne out (and Hanson), with James Henry and Billy Bodin still on their way back from injury, McNally carrying a knock then having his nose broken mid game, and Holland coming off with a tightness after a rare good game. We've also had Covid and sickness ravage our squad a few times this season and Stevens with Glandular Fever which seems to have had a more lasting effect. There's no way around it, our injury luck this season has been mental. Just the 7 that were out/not fit enough for 90 against Morecambe would be a first 11 you'd die for in this league:

Moore
Gorrin
Brannagan Henry
Bodin Baldock Browne

Yes, defensive recruitment has been iffy this year. My understanding is in January we had two defensive players agree to sign for us, then last minute change their minds and go elsewhere. If one or both of those do join (I have no info who they were) then maybe we aren't in the position we are right now. The luck for OUFC has been seriously out most of this season, and to still be in the mix despite the bad luck and the failings in recruitment is actually quite impressive.

- Is the season over? No. Absolutely not. And I hope the players see this that the pressure is off now; we're the chasers. Time to uncage the beast and pile so much pressure on the 3 above us that they crumble and we sneak into the playoffs. Batter Sunderland on Saturday and get Wycombe and Wednesday nervously looking back like we were.
 
Jolteon said:
Some more serious things to note now that it's a little less painful:

- We probably need 4 wins from 5 to make the playoffs now. Saturday is the absolute definition of a must win. Lose that one (and assuming Wycombe/Wednesday win) and we'll be 5 points behind with 4 to play including Rotherham and MK. Lose on Saturday and its season over.

- While I know KR bashing is the flavour of the month at the moment, you do have to have a little sympathy with regards to the injury problems we've had. We went into the Morecambe game with Moore, Brannagan, Baldock, Gorrin and Browne out (and Hanson), with James Henry and Billy Bodin still on their way back from injury, McNally carrying a knock then having his nose broken mid game, and Holland coming off with a tightness after a rare good game. We've also had Covid and sickness ravage our squad a few times this season and Stevens with Glandular Fever which seems to have had a more lasting effect. There's no way around it, our injury luck this season has been mental. Just the 7 that were out/not fit enough for 90 against Morecambe would be a first 11 you'd die for in this league:

Moore
Gorrin
Brannagan Henry
Bodin Baldock Browne

Yes, defensive recruitment has been iffy this year. My understanding is in January we had two defensive players agree to sign for us, then last minute change their minds and go elsewhere. If one or both of those do join (I have no info who they were) then maybe we aren't in the position we are right now. The luck for OUFC has been seriously out most of this season, and to still be in the mix despite the bad luck and the failings in recruitment is actually quite impressive.

- Is the season over? No. Absolutely not. And I hope the players see this that the pressure is off now; we're the chasers. Time to uncage the beast and pile so much pressure on the 3 above us that they crumble and we sneak into the playoffs. Batter Sunderland on Saturday and get Wycombe and Wednesday nervously looking back like we were.
Click to expand...
Up the Manor
 
Jolteon said:
- While I know KR bashing is the flavour of the month at the moment, you do have to have a little sympathy with regards to the injury problems we've had. We went into the Morecambe game with Moore, Brannagan, Baldock, Gorrin and Browne out (and Hanson), with James Henry and Billy Bodin still on their way back from injury, McNally carrying a knock then having his nose broken mid game, and Holland coming off with a tightness after a rare good game. We've also had Covid and sickness ravage our squad a few times this season and Stevens with Glandular Fever which seems to have had a more lasting
Click to expand...
I agree that we have had some very unfortunate injuries. But..

Of those you mention, Gorrin was crocked before Christmas and we signed no replacement, we signed Browne injured and then as soon as he was fit he was basically just chucked back into the team and if Stevens is still suffering then Eastwood has done little wrong in the games he has started recently. Hanson has been nowhere near the team since God was a boy.

Despite that yes - you are right, unfortunate. The argument though is not so much about that, it's more about the failure to recruit (both back in the summer and in January) sufficient quality cover in various positions when such problems occur, while retaining the likes of Mous, Hanson, Davis (who?) in the squad (to pick the three most obvious ones). And we are still at it - re signing Forde who we don't seem to use even when we have an injury crisis and a versatile player like him would seem to be exactly what we need.

So in my view, it is a combination of unfortunate long and longish term injuries to key players and having a squad that has got a very strange mixture of players in it. It's almost as if we recruit talented players and then try to shoe-horn them into a system whether they fit or not rather than buy players for the system we want to use. The result of that is a defence and defensive midfield like last night, when virtually every one of them was playing out of position. That's madness.
 
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