Matches Top 6 Race 2023/24

[SirAndyOfCrosby]

This is the exact problem with the so called ‘positive’ posters you mention who hide behind constantly posting absolute rubbish while saying ‘But I’m supporting the current manager!! Get behind the team!!! At least I’m better than the moaners?!’

If someone had posted saying that we were boring and they found us dull to watch under Manning while we were second, they’d have been shouted down by those posters. If someone had said we’re outperforming our XG they’d have been laughed at by those posters. If someone had said Manning isn’t a nice guy and they’d heard rumours the players don’t like him they’d have been absolutely ripped to shreds by those posters and called ‘negative’ etc etc etc.

However, as soon as Manning has gone and is no longer the manager, any positive comments about him are seen as ‘negative’ to the current management, so the rush is on to rewrite history and make up as much bad stuff as possible so the current debacle looks good. We saw exactly the same with Karl Robinson, he was blindly supported by these people for much longer than any sane fan would, and only at the very end was turned on. Des will be the same: If he’s sacked tomorrow and someone new comes in and somehow does even worse, we’ll be hearing about how ‘Yeah but Des had no chance of winning the playoffs and I’ve heard the players much prefer the new guy’ etc etc etc.

It’s honestly like watching Russian bots support Putin online, there’s zero objectivity or any kind of grasp on reality. It’s just as frustrating to me as someone who’s negative no matter what - it’s not based in reality so it’s a waste of time. Of course I’d rather have them cheering in the stands than people booing, but this isn’t the ground on matchday.

Of course they won’t ever accept this as they’re being ‘positive’ so therefore positive = a good thing. Boring.

 

[Bigdwoolly]

To try to move us on from the tedious "we'd have won the league easily with Manning, Des is an idiot", "no we wouldn't and he isn't" spats, I thought I'd have a look at each clubs opposition average league positions to see if anyone has an obviously easy run in. And the answer is, no-one has a particularly easy run but Blackpool have the easiest.

However, there is some more noticeable differences when you look at home/away splits. Both ours and Lincolns away games are "easier", whereas the opposite is true for Orient.

	Oxford	Lincoln	Stevenage	Blackpool	Orient
Avg opp league position	13.1	13.0	13.6	14.7	12.6
avg home	10.3	7.3	12.0	14.8	15.5
avg away	17.0	17.3	15.3	14.7	8.7

 

[SirAndyOfCrosby]

If there is one thing the managerial debacle has taught me it's that xG can predict the 'true' course of the remainder of the season.

To that end, I'm pleased to confirm that Lincoln's collapse is inevitable. According to xG, they've scored a whopping 12 'extra' goals from open play - and conceded 10 fewer than they 'should' have. So a net difference of 22 goals.

In fact, I've just checked Barnsley too, and even though they have scored 64 goals from open play - it should only be 49. They've also conceded 5 fewer goals than xG tell us. So they are (net) 20 goals better off than they should be. And apparently should be 17 points worse off. Frauds.

Bolton have scored 5 goals more than is correct. And conceded 6 fewer. An 11 fraudulent goal swing.

Even Champions-elect Pompey are guilty. Going forward they are on the money, but even they are cheating xG at the back - they should have conceded 8 more. Apparently that's 10 points they should have dropped.

In fact, every single one of the Top Half are apparently over-performing vs their xG. And (bar Northampton and Shrewsbury) all of the bottom half are  underperforming vs their xG.

It's almost as if (bear with me) - outperforming xG is a sign of a good team?

It also looks like it's sustainsble over a whole season for the top sides, despite being previously led to believe that it inevitably collapses after exactly 16 matches.

xG is dead. Long live xG.

 

[Mojofilter]

I know it's not the most important take away from your post, but considering you've correctly contracted 'have' in "could've" and "would've", what the hell happened with "we'd of"???

Finally, a moderator tackling the important stuff. Can we also institute a ban for people who write loose rather than lose

 

[Yellow There!]

If Manning stayed we’d of been comfortably in the play offs.

Who knows we could’ve challenged Pompey/Derby..

A lot of that would’ve been decided by how he got his January transfer window done.

He was an outstanding manager here.

We were told he planned to bring in Anis Mehmeti, one of L1’s standout performers last year.
Compare that to Burey, who came with a bad reputation and now can’t get a game, and it says all you need to know.

 

[Bigdwoolly]

We were told he planned to bring in Anis Mehmeti, one of L1’s standout performers last year.
Compare that to Burey, who came with a bad reputation and now can’t get a game, and it says all you need to know.

This the same Burey we were trying to sign in the summer when Manning was here?

 

[Bigdwoolly]

If there is one thing the managerial debacle has taught me it's that xG can predict the 'true' course of the remainder of the season.

To that end, I'm pleased to confirm that Lincoln's collapse is inevitable. According to xG, they've scored a whopping 12 'extra' goals from open play - and conceded 10 fewer than they 'should' have. So a net difference of 22 goals.

In fact, I've just checked Barnsley too, and even though they have scored 64 goals from open play - it should only be 49. They've also conceded 5 fewer goals than xG tell us. So they are (net) 20 goals better off than they should be. And apparently should be 17 points worse off. Frauds.

Bolton have scored 5 goals more than is correct. And conceded 6 fewer. An 11 fraudulent goal swing.

Even Champions-elect Pompey are guilty. Going forward they are on the money, but even they are cheating xG at the back - they should have conceded 8 more. Apparently that's 10 points they should have dropped.

In fact, every single one of the Top Half are apparently over-performing vs their xG. And (bar Northampton and Shrewsbury) all of the bottom half are  underperforming vs their xG.

It's almost as if (bear with me) - outperforming xG is a sign of a good team?

It also looks like it's sustainsble over a whole season for the top sides, despite being previously led to believe that it inevitably collapses after exactly 16 matches.

xG is dead. Long live xG.

I don't know where you get your stats from, but this XG league table https://footballxg.com/xg-league-tables/ (you'll need to select League One, then sort by XG League position) shows that it's actually us and Barnsley who are overperforming our XG significantly, we'd be 12th on these particular stats.

Some of it is explained by the fact we tend to go ahead in games. Once winning it's natural that the opposition will start pushing for an equaliser (lifting their XG) while we tend to sit back and helplessly pray for victories.
A bit like last season, where we underperformed our XG a lot, because we were often losing and went chasing games (with Brannagan attempting multiple 25 yarders a match).

 

[Foley]

We were told he planned to bring in Anis Mehmeti, one of L1’s standout performers last year.
Compare that to Burey, who came with a bad reputation and now can’t get a game, and it says all you need to know.

Er Manning was after Burey and we neatly got him on a permanent transfer for a fee,

He never planned to get in Mehmeti. He wouod have liked Mehmeti buy whether he wouod have got him is far from clear.

 

[Osei Yaw]

Let's not pretend Manning's recruitment was perfect. Yes, he did pick up some good players, but he also signed Sonny Perkins when he should've got Scott Twine.

 

[MarkG]

Are there any websites that you can use to enter your predictions for the matches and it generates a league table?
Many years ago I had an excel that had all of the fixtures for the season, and it would produce a league table.
Even if I knew where it is, I wouldn't fancy typing in all of the clubs and fixtures and results at this stage of the season. Also don't know if it coped with points deductions.

 

[yellowbow]

Are there any websites that you can use to enter your predictions for the matches and it generates a league table?
Many years ago I had an excel that had all of the fixtures for the season, and it would produce a league table.
Even if I knew where it is, I wouldn't fancy typing in all of the clubs and fixtures and results at this stage of the season. Also don't know if it coped with points deductions.

I remember the BBC sport site used to do one of these for the run-in

 

[m]

Finally, a moderator tackling the important stuff. Can we also institute a ban for people who write loose rather than lose

I hope you get this suggestion excepted.

 

[Mike_H]

Finally, a moderator tackling the important stuff. Can we also institute a ban for people who write loose rather than lose

My bugbear is the use of "would of", "could of" etc. closely followed by "outwith" and "getgo".

 

[BicesterU]

Are there any websites that you can use to enter your predictions for the matches and it generates a league table?
Many years ago I had an excel that had all of the fixtures for the season, and it would produce a league table.
Even if I knew where it is, I wouldn't fancy typing in all of the clubs and fixtures and results at this stage of the season. Also don't know if it coped with points deductions.

This one looks good: https://thefishy.co.uk/football-calculator.php

I tried it yesterday simulating all the results and it took about 10-12 goes to get us up to 6th. You can entre results for just selected teams too, allowing it to simulate the others.

EDIT: Just looked at it again and it doesn't seem to be working for me today.

 

[MarkG]

The Yorkshire Post has found a "supercomputer" to predict the table. [edited to include Peterborough], the linked article takes seven pages of adverts to get through.
95 Pompey
94 Bolton
88 Derby
82 Barnsley
81 Posh
77 Lincoln
75 Oxford
73 Stevenage
72 Orient

Supercomputer predicts how League One promotion race will unfold for Barnsley and rivals

The League One promotion race is heating up as the end of the 2023/24 campaign draws closer.

www.yorkshirepost.co.uk

 

[Foley]

The Yorkshire Post has found a "supercomputer" to predict the table
95 Pompey
94 Bolton
88 Derby
82 Barnsley
77 Lincoln
75 Oxford
73 Stevenage
72 Orient

Supercomputer predicts how League One promotion race will unfold for Barnsley and rivals

The League One promotion race is heating up as the end of the 2023/24 campaign draws closer.

www.yorkshirepost.co.uk

And Peterborough?

 

[BicesterU]

The Yorkshire Post has found a "supercomputer" to predict the table
95 Pompey
94 Bolton
88 Derby
82 Barnsley
77 Lincoln
75 Oxford
73 Stevenage
72 Orient

Supercomputer predicts how League One promotion race will unfold for Barnsley and rivals

The League One promotion race is heating up as the end of the 2023/24 campaign draws closer.

www.yorkshirepost.co.uk

Think you've missed Peterborough out - this has got them 5th, Lincoln 6th and us 7th. Bloody supercomputers.

 

[chromeyellow]

The Yorkshire Post has found a "supercomputer" to predict the table
95 Pompey
94 Bolton
88 Derby
82 Barnsley
77 Lincoln
75 Oxford
73 Stevenage
72 Orient

Supercomputer predicts how League One promotion race will unfold for Barnsley and rivals

The League One promotion race is heating up as the end of the 2023/24 campaign draws closer.

www.yorkshirepost.co.uk

I never liked Peterborough

 

[WuTang]

I never liked Peterborough

Harsh, considering they're about to be liquidated and removed from the league according to the supercomputer!

 

[chuckbert]

My bugbear is the use of "would of", "could of" etc. closely followed by "outwith" and "getgo".

I’d give “outwith” a pass if used by a Scot.