18,000 is the perfect capacity.
It is well known, sourcing the 1999 survey of Oxford fans made by FOUL (Thank you
@SwissYellow for the stats today), that Cherwell District was where the largest proportion of our fans came from. Naturally this will have changed over the years, but with the large developments in areas such as Banbury & Bicester, tapping into these markets would be huge for Oxford United. With Journeys from Bicester taking 11 minutes and direct trains from Banbury taking 17, it is not out of the question that our weeknight attendances could see a real boost due to the increased connectivity alone.
I would also argue that for those in Witney, this would again be much more convenient - though I could see ratrunning through Cassington being an issue. By this time I believe the Eynsham Park & Ride will be in operation. If this is the case, I'd like to see matchday incentives (free/subsidised buses) from there to the ground or certainly Oxford Parkway.
For those to the south, from the Centre of Abingdon it is a 16 minute drive to the Kassam or 17 minute to Stratfield Brake. There's nothing in it. The same will be said for Didcot, though again for both there are potential incentives for train travel (Didcot easily, Abingdon via Radley). Both require a change, but it is not beyond the realm of possibility for matchdays to have special direct services.
I know for myself as a Thame resident that I would be going via H&T Parkway to games, even in the mornings where I'd travel into the city for a drink first. Given our previous partnerships with Chiltern, I'd imagine matchday tickets are not beyond the realms of possibility.
In terms of the capacity itself, lets give ourselves a conservative benchmark of a 10% increase across the season based on larger attendances due to connectivity. I know full well there are individuals who are not attending due to the ground; I'm not saying this is thousands but certainly a few hundred minimum. If we then add in a 'New Stadium Bounce' (which of course will be dependant on us not replicating our slide to the conference in the 2000's) of 20%, it is not ridiculous to assume that in League One we'd be looking at an average of 10-12k minimum attendances throughout the year. With the vision the club has, based on the investment they're making, I honestly believe we could pull home crowds of 12-14k regularly in the Championship, with away crowds ranging from 1.5-3.5k depending on how we allocate (probably looking at 3k each end & 6k on the sides).
My major suggestions to the club would come through making the site itself feeling like home. You don't want a soulless area with a car park around the ground; we need some actual bars/pubs. Yes you can build some into the ground, but we'll need something separate too. Maybe even build something onto the new Cricket/Rugby clubhouse? Then in addition, a food area with independent traders, maybe 7-8 different options in a small area, to give some good matchday food options outside of a burger and chips. Reading do this well.
On top of that, artwork, murals, statues, fan zones. All of these are important. Look, there's not going to be more than 18k at a game, but given that this is Oxfordshire's only real venue, not only are these important for match-day incomes and that real feeling of a 'home' in the modern era of Football, but it will also be important when it comes to maximising the potential for the ground outside of the season, with gigs and other events being a real potential.
Finally, and most importantly. This must not be held by a holding company outside of Oxford United itself. This must ALL be held under Oxford United; and every Oxford United fan should be writing to the club, the councils and so on to ensure this is the case. We do not want to end up in another Kassam situation. This is without a doubt the number one priority for any fan.
