Indeed. And if we need 10 points from only the next 3 games and discount the subsequent 9 games, then relegation is a mathematical certainty. We are doomed.
Clearly, we are not 'doomed'. But, in my view, the usual flatterers and ass lickers are unduly complacent. Little Dave and Tim airily brush off our current position - as they have since we started playing badly back in the autumn - and say 'no point in worrying, we are far too good to go down'
And they always rest hopes on a sudden dramatic improvement from someone they know nothing about. A new player. A new manager. This leaving aside that they thought that the current players and Pep were the second coming after we drew at home to an average Bradford side.
The form is indisputable. We have garnered 30 points from 28 games. That is a very large sample, and indicates a return of about 1.1 points a game - or 52 points in a season if displayed over the full 46 games.
So, since September we have displayed the form of a team who may scrape 20th place.
And yet we are told that this is a 'talismanic' team that is 'being built' and will 'easily finish mid table this season' before 'pushing on from there'. It's Alice in Wonderland stuff.
Because of our points yield from the first six games of the season, I would guess that the shower currently purporting to play for us will end up scraping home with about 55 points in about 18th place. Nothing mid-table about it, and a doffed cap to Jack Payne and Eastwood.
Then will begin the mother of all clear-outs, as the 'talismanic team' gets dismantled. We are looking at, what, 15 players out? And quite a few of those left behind, one would not want to be left. And our only valuable players have 1 year left on their contract (Eastwood, Ledson, Nelson, Hall) or nothing (Rothwell) After years of careful building across many different parts of the club by Kelvin, Lenagan and Ashton, this chaos has been looming down the track for a while after two years of bad and unstrategic decisions which have gone unexamined and unnoticed by a supine fanbase. I just fervently hope that we get a new manager bounce to get us over the line and give Tiger the one remaining plus point - League 1 status - to build from. We have the perfect two games to launch the bounce and get short-term confidence up a little, so let's hope the new gaffer gets announced on Monday and has a few days to work on a plan for Fleetwood.