Orkney Islands Yellow
Well-known member
- Joined
- 13 Dec 2017
- Messages
- 7,290
I largely agree that we need to stop making the same mistakes but to highlight this as a mistake, let alone one we urgently need to rectify is a bit of a stretch. If we changed the squad balance we create, I don't think too much else would need to changePre season has to be different. None of this a game every 24/36 hours. The players don’t like it, the science may suggest it works but judging by our recent seasons, it clearly doesn’t for us.
Whatever was done in preseason over the past two seasons should never be done again!!I largely agree that we need to stop making the same mistakes but to highlight this as a mistake, let alone one we urgently need to rectify is a bit of a stretch. If we changed the squad balance we create, I don't think too much else would need to change
Biggest factor for me is the back 4. It took 11 games till Wigan away for us to play Long, Moore, Atkinson & Ruffels as a back 4. From that 2-1 we followed up with a great point at Pompey then that Swindon game that finished Eastwoods time as number 1.Think we will both win. Although a couple of quick goals for us will get the nerves flowing and then who knows.
However, if we fall short, it’ll be so frustrating and questions would need to be asked as to why.
It’s all very well saying we are the best team in the league over the last 30 or so games, but it’s the lack of points in the first 15/16 games where the damage was done and ultimately left us playing catch up which in turn left us very little room for error.
This will no doubt be forgotten and KR and the love in media around the club and certain posters on here will deflect it and in turn making it seem we were very unlucky to finish where we did.
For me after 46 games you finish where you deserve so no complaints should be had.
If as looks likely and I’ve no complaints on this, KR is in charge when we go again next season. Lessons HAVE to be learned.
Pre season has to be different. None of this a game every 24/36 hours. The players don’t like it, the science may suggest it works but judging by our recent seasons, it clearly doesn’t for us.
Our business in the whole needs to be done early barring the odd player or two maximum.
Early calls on the OOC players and those due to return is needed. Likewise any bids coming in. Name our price, give it a fortnight in the close season for the deals to be done and then it’s thanks or no thanks.
No uncertainty either way. No distractions.
All of the above is achievable if KR and the board have a clear and focused plan.
Will it happen??
We shall see.
That why I'm concerned!I’m not sure why folks go on about Burton’s form. For the last 6 games it is
WDLDWD
Compared to
WWWLWW
for us.
A bit early to be on the sherbetsSunday cannot come fast enough.
Pompey 2-2 Accrington full time 90+3.
It's 1-1 in our game after a Burton equaliser.
At 90+8, none other than big man Dan Agyei then proceeds to toe punt the ball into the top left bin to invoke a surge in ambulance call outs from yellows fans all over the globe jumping simultaneously through their ceilings.
We then go on to win the remaining 3 games sending us into the championship. Shortly followed by Erick and Co. buying the club, building us a stadium and 4 years down the line we are Champions League winners.
My dear man. What you have highlighted is a run of 1.5 points per game for the last 6. Not as good as they have been since the turn of the year you may say, but 1.5 points all season and they would be sat with 67-68 points right now and there would be real concern for our chances.I’m not sure why folks go on about Burton’s form. For the last 6 games it is
WDLDWD
Compared to
WWWLWW
for us.
Not me, I will very calmly switch the computer off, ask very politely not to be disturbed for the rest of the day, and have a long lie down, in a very dark room.We have to win. If we fail to win and Pompey do too everyone will melt down.
They’ve lost as many times as we have in the last 6.My dear man. What you have highlighted is a run of 1.5 points per game for the last 6. Not as good as they have been since the turn of the year you may say, but 1.5 points all season and they would be sat with 67-68 points right now and there would be real concern for our chances.
What has also been picked up and understood by BD Yellow and clearly shown in your stats is that for us to win Burton must loose, something which has become quite rare this year.
Never fear though, this is Oxford United. Somehow we will find a win.
Biggest factor for me is the back 4. It took 11 games till Wigan away for us to play Long, Moore, Atkinson & Ruffels as a back 4. From that 2-1 we followed up with a great point at Pompey then that Swindon game that finished Eastwoods time as number 1.
Huh, you can prove anything with facts and stats! I'm relying on the hope that last day games are often crazy.I spend quite a bit of time on football stats, mainly for betting purposes to try and find a combination of matches where the odds given by the betting shops are worse than the true odds calculated based on goal distribution and a number of other considerations.
I am hoping and praying that the true odds of our games does not become a reality for Sunday.
Here are some stats for the games:
First Portsmouth: All calculations are based on the Last 8 home games for Portsmouth and the last 8 away games for Accy
Pompey Home Scoring Avg 1.13 Accy Away Scoring Avg 1.25
Pompey Conceding Average 1.00 Accy Conceding Average 2.75
Home Win % 69.73 with true decimal odds of 1.43
Accys best form is at home
Burton at oxford: Same as above (last 8 games home and away respectively)
Oxford Home Scoring Avg 2.00 Burton Away Scoring Average 1.63
Oxford home conceding Avg 1.13 Burton Away Conceding Average 0.38
Home Win 19.76% and the away win % is 52.91 % Oxfords true odds of winning the game is approx 4/1
Burton are unbeaten since Boxing day away from home and have only conceded 3 away goals in the last 8 away games.
I found that the stats v actual results tend to be around 65/70% accurate as a number of factors in the games can change the circumstances dramatically.
Lets hope this will be in the 35% range
How does 65% accuracy compare to odds from bookies?I spend quite a bit of time on football stats, mainly for betting purposes to try and find a combination of matches where the odds given by the betting shops are worse than the true odds calculated based on goal distribution and a number of other considerations.
I am hoping and praying that the true odds of our games does not become a reality for Sunday.
Here are some stats for the games:
First Portsmouth: All calculations are based on the Last 8 home games for Portsmouth and the last 8 away games for Accy
Pompey Home Scoring Avg 1.13 Accy Away Scoring Avg 1.25
Pompey Conceding Average 1.00 Accy Conceding Average 2.75
Home Win % 69.73 with true decimal odds of 1.43
Accys best form is at home
Burton at oxford: Same as above (last 8 games home and away respectively)
Oxford Home Scoring Avg 2.00 Burton Away Scoring Average 1.63
Oxford home conceding Avg 1.13 Burton Away Conceding Average 0.38
Home Win 19.76% and the away win % is 52.91 % Oxfords true odds of winning the game is approx 4/1
Burton are unbeaten since Boxing day away from home and have only conceded 3 away goals in the last 8 away games.
I found that the stats v actual results tend to be around 65/70% accurate as a number of factors in the games can change the circumstances dramatically.
Lets hope this will be in the 35% range
And that is a key point, we have two teams with nothing to play for so anything can happenHuh, you can prove anything with facts and stats! I'm relying on the hope that last day games are often crazy.
For 50 minutes at Lincoln then didn’t play together for 10/11 games till the Wigan game at the end of November. Clare was playing right back. Long was switching from centre back to left back etc. Moore was the only one playing in the same spot and probably explains why he was s**t for 2 months.That back 4 started the first 2 games of the season, Wimbledon at home in the Carabao cup followed by Lincoln away which is where Ruffels
came off injured.
I think you are referring to the accumulated odds? The odds in your favour obviously decrease as soon as you start accumulating them with other odds of good value. So I for one usually never pick more than 4 teams where I am getting very good odds. I never bet against Oxford as that to me is a bridge to far (could never root against the yellows).How does 65% accuracy compare to odds from bookies?
Does it mean that for a pair of results the accuracy is 42% (65%^2)?
I think it’s more to do with their turnaround than say comparing us and them. We all know what we’re like, you know, that team that haven’t won away in so many games against a team at home (us) who haven’t lost meaning something’s got to give and invariably it ends up us losing or that’s how it feels!I’m not sure why folks go on about Burton’s form. For the last 6 games it is
WDLDWD
Compared to
WWWLWW
for us.