Home Match Build Up 9/5/2021 L1 OUFC v Burton Albion

[Orkney Islands Yellow]

 

[Jolteon]

It's only Tuesday and I'm already feeling tense for this one. I'm one of the more positive people on this forum and even I thought we'd fluffed it after Wimbledon. Credit has to be given to KR and the players for always believing. 90 more minutes, go out there and win, and whatever happens with Pompey you can call it a season to be proud of. 74 points is a fantastic achievement, and if it's the rare occasion where it's not enough this season then so be it. 3-1 to OUFC, Accrington get a last minute equaliser to make sure we all die from nerves before the ecstasy of reaching the playoffs!

 

[Carpy]

Pre season has to be different. None of this a game every 24/36 hours. The players don’t like it, the science may suggest it works but judging by our recent seasons, it clearly doesn’t for us.

I largely agree that we need to stop making the same mistakes but to highlight this as a mistake, let alone one we urgently need to rectify is a bit of a stretch. If we changed the squad balance we create, I don't think too much else would need to change

 

[Orkney Islands Yellow]

I largely agree that we need to stop making the same mistakes but to highlight this as a mistake, let alone one we urgently need to rectify is a bit of a stretch. If we changed the squad balance we create, I don't think too much else would need to change

Whatever was done in preseason over the past two seasons should never be done again!!

 

[OUFCwaffle]

Sunday cannot come fast enough.
Pompey 2-2 Accrington full time 90+3.
It's 1-1 in our game after a Burton equaliser.
At 90+8, none other than big man Dan Agyei then proceeds to toe punt the ball into the top left bin to invoke a surge in ambulance call outs from yellows fans all over the globe jumping simultaneously through their ceilings.

We then go on to win the remaining 3 games sending us into the championship. Shortly followed by Erick and Co. buying the club, building us a stadium and 4 years down the line we are Champions League winners.

 

[Oxford1996]

Think we will both win. Although a couple of quick goals for us will get the nerves flowing and then who knows.

However, if we fall short, it’ll be so frustrating and questions would need to be asked as to why.

It’s all very well saying we are the best team in the league over the last 30 or so games, but it’s the lack of points in the first 15/16 games where the damage was done and ultimately left us playing catch up which in turn left us very little room for error.

This will no doubt be forgotten and KR and the love in media around the club and certain posters on here will deflect it and in turn making it seem we were very unlucky to finish where we did.

For me after 46 games you finish where you deserve so no complaints should be had.

If as looks likely and I’ve no complaints on this, KR is in charge when we go again next season. Lessons HAVE to be learned.

Pre season has to be different. None of this a game every 24/36 hours. The players don’t like it, the science may suggest it works but judging by our recent seasons, it clearly doesn’t for us.

Our business in the whole needs to be done early barring the odd player or two maximum.

Early calls on the OOC players and those due to return is needed. Likewise any bids coming in. Name our price, give it a fortnight in the close season for the deals to be done and then it’s thanks or no thanks.

No uncertainty either way. No distractions.

All of the above is achievable if KR and the board have a clear and focused plan.

Will it happen??

We shall see.

Biggest factor for me is the back 4. It took 11 games till Wigan away for us to play Long, Moore, Atkinson & Ruffels as a back 4. From that 2-1 we followed up with a great point at Pompey then that Swindon game that finished Eastwoods time as number 1.

 

[Mad Dog]

I’m not sure why folks go on about Burton’s form. For the last 6 games it is
WDLDWD
Compared to
WWWLWW
for us.

That why I'm concerned!
Our bubble usually bursts at the worst possible moment, usually at the same moment teams who had been stuttering, find form, let's hope Sunday bucks the trend..

 

[Grumpy Git]

Sunday cannot come fast enough.
Pompey 2-2 Accrington full time 90+3.
It's 1-1 in our game after a Burton equaliser.
At 90+8, none other than big man Dan Agyei then proceeds to toe punt the ball into the top left bin to invoke a surge in ambulance call outs from yellows fans all over the globe jumping simultaneously through their ceilings.

We then go on to win the remaining 3 games sending us into the championship. Shortly followed by Erick and Co. buying the club, building us a stadium and 4 years down the line we are Champions League winners.

A bit early to be on the sherbets

 

[Hamiltons Knee]

I’m not sure why folks go on about Burton’s form. For the last 6 games it is
WDLDWD
Compared to
WWWLWW
for us.

My dear man. What you have highlighted is a run of 1.5 points per game for the last 6. Not as good as they have been since the turn of the year you may say, but 1.5 points all season and they would be sat with 67-68 points right now and there would be real concern for our chances.
What has also been picked up and understood by BD Yellow and clearly shown in your stats is that for us to win Burton must loose, something which has become quite rare this year.
Never fear though, this is Oxford United. Somehow we will find a win.

 

[Mad Dog]

We have to win. If we fail to win and Pompey do too everyone will melt down.

Not me, I will very calmly switch the computer off, ask very politely not to be disturbed for the rest of the day, and have a long lie down, in a very dark room.

 

[chuckbert]

My dear man. What you have highlighted is a run of 1.5 points per game for the last 6. Not as good as they have been since the turn of the year you may say, but 1.5 points all season and they would be sat with 67-68 points right now and there would be real concern for our chances.
What has also been picked up and understood by BD Yellow and clearly shown in your stats is that for us to win Burton must loose, something which has become quite rare this year.
Never fear though, this is Oxford United. Somehow we will find a win.

They’ve lost as many times as we have in the last 6.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

Biggest factor for me is the back 4. It took 11 games till Wigan away for us to play Long, Moore, Atkinson & Ruffels as a back 4. From that 2-1 we followed up with a great point at Pompey then that Swindon game that finished Eastwoods time as number 1.

That back 4 started the first 2 games of the season, Wimbledon at home in the Carabao cup followed by Lincoln away which is where Ruffels
came off injured.

 

[Scottie]

I spend quite a bit of time on football stats, mainly for betting purposes to try and find a combination of matches where the odds given by the betting shops are worse than the true odds calculated based on goal distribution and a number of other considerations.

I am hoping and praying that the true odds of our games does not become a reality for Sunday.
Here are some stats for the games:

First Portsmouth: All calculations are based on the Last 8 home games for Portsmouth and the last 8 away games for Accy

Pompey Home Scoring Avg 1.13 Accy Away Scoring Avg 1.25
Pompey Conceding Average 1.00 Accy Conceding Average 2.75
Home Win % 69.73 with true decimal odds of 1.43
Accys best form is at home

Burton at oxford: Same as above (last 8 games home and away respectively)

Oxford Home Scoring Avg 2.00 Burton Away Scoring Average 1.63
Oxford home conceding Avg 1.13 Burton Away Conceding Average 0.38
Home Win 19.76% and the away win % is 52.91 % Oxfords true odds of winning the game is approx 4/1

Burton are unbeaten since Boxing day away from home and have only conceded 3 away goals in the last 8 away games.

I found that the stats v actual results tend to be around 65/70% accurate as a number of factors in the games can change the circumstances dramatically.

Lets hope this will be in the 35% range

 

[werthersoriginal]

I spend quite a bit of time on football stats, mainly for betting purposes to try and find a combination of matches where the odds given by the betting shops are worse than the true odds calculated based on goal distribution and a number of other considerations.

I am hoping and praying that the true odds of our games does not become a reality for Sunday.
Here are some stats for the games:

First Portsmouth: All calculations are based on the Last 8 home games for Portsmouth and the last 8 away games for Accy

Pompey Home Scoring Avg 1.13 Accy Away Scoring Avg 1.25
Pompey Conceding Average 1.00 Accy Conceding Average 2.75
Home Win % 69.73 with true decimal odds of 1.43
Accys best form is at home

Burton at oxford: Same as above (last 8 games home and away respectively)

Oxford Home Scoring Avg 2.00 Burton Away Scoring Average 1.63
Oxford home conceding Avg 1.13 Burton Away Conceding Average 0.38
Home Win 19.76% and the away win % is 52.91 % Oxfords true odds of winning the game is approx 4/1

Burton are unbeaten since Boxing day away from home and have only conceded 3 away goals in the last 8 away games.

I found that the stats v actual results tend to be around 65/70% accurate as a number of factors in the games can change the circumstances dramatically.

Lets hope this will be in the 35% range

Huh, you can prove anything with facts and stats! I'm relying on the hope that last day games are often crazy.

 

[chuckbert]

I spend quite a bit of time on football stats, mainly for betting purposes to try and find a combination of matches where the odds given by the betting shops are worse than the true odds calculated based on goal distribution and a number of other considerations.

I am hoping and praying that the true odds of our games does not become a reality for Sunday.
Here are some stats for the games:

First Portsmouth: All calculations are based on the Last 8 home games for Portsmouth and the last 8 away games for Accy

Pompey Home Scoring Avg 1.13 Accy Away Scoring Avg 1.25
Pompey Conceding Average 1.00 Accy Conceding Average 2.75
Home Win % 69.73 with true decimal odds of 1.43
Accys best form is at home

Burton at oxford: Same as above (last 8 games home and away respectively)

Oxford Home Scoring Avg 2.00 Burton Away Scoring Average 1.63
Oxford home conceding Avg 1.13 Burton Away Conceding Average 0.38
Home Win 19.76% and the away win % is 52.91 % Oxfords true odds of winning the game is approx 4/1

Burton are unbeaten since Boxing day away from home and have only conceded 3 away goals in the last 8 away games.

I found that the stats v actual results tend to be around 65/70% accurate as a number of factors in the games can change the circumstances dramatically.

Lets hope this will be in the 35% range

How does 65% accuracy compare to odds from bookies?
Does it mean that for a pair of results the accuracy is 42% (65%^2)?

 

[Scottie]

Huh, you can prove anything with facts and stats! I'm relying on the hope that last day games are often crazy.

And that is a key point, we have two teams with nothing to play for so anything can happen

 

[Oxford1996]

That back 4 started the first 2 games of the season, Wimbledon at home in the Carabao cup followed by Lincoln away which is where Ruffels
came off injured.

For 50 minutes at Lincoln then didn’t play together for 10/11 games till the Wigan game at the end of November. Clare was playing right back. Long was switching from centre back to left back etc. Moore was the only one playing in the same spot and probably explains why he was s**t for 2 months.

Atkinson got sent off then got injured and didn’t start till November 21st.

 

[Oxford1996]

From that Wigan away win we have been top draw bar the odd result here and there.

 

[Scottie]

How does 65% accuracy compare to odds from bookies?
Does it mean that for a pair of results the accuracy is 42% (65%^2)?

I think you are referring to the accumulated odds? The odds in your favour obviously decrease as soon as you start accumulating them with other odds of good value. So I for one usually never pick more than 4 teams where I am getting very good odds. I never bet against Oxford as that to me is a bridge to far (could never root against the yellows).
If you just look at the face value most punter will look at the odds and think, thats not too bad in football terms. Currently Oxfords odds of winning this game are 13/20 a big difference from the true odds, so basically you should never bet at those odds particularly when the true odds are a lot different, whereas Burton are 7/2 which is a great price against the true odds of about 4/5. The Portsmouth odds are a lot closer to the betting shop, but still worse than the true odds

 

[uptheus]

I’m not sure why folks go on about Burton’s form. For the last 6 games it is
WDLDWD
Compared to
WWWLWW
for us.

I think it’s more to do with their turnaround than say comparing us and them. We all know what we’re like, you know, that team that haven’t won away in so many games against a team at home (us) who haven’t lost meaning something’s got to give and invariably it ends up us losing or that’s how it feels!

I would hate it if we lost and Pompey slip up (long shot I know), but would hate it.

Burton to me feel like one of those sides we should beat, but we have had plenty of difficult games against them and Sunday won’t be any different. It’s like a cup final game for us where we’re expected to win, but we all know what can happen in these one off games, especially for Burton who basically have nothing to lose.

It’s a weird feeling really as there’s part of me knows it’s a long shot so I’m halfway in that camp already e.g. resided to the fact that we will just miss out, but my heart misses a beat/nervous tension in that I hope that results will go our way and we make it (then we’ve got to go through it all again via the play-offs!), but I’d prefer that opportunity than not.